1 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Telstar vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result

BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid
Referee: Richard Martens
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Telstar 4-2 Utrecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Telstar, 26% draw, 33% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Telstar at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Telstar99%Draw1%Utrecht0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tyrone Owusu
8'
⚽Abdelnour Soualhiaassist: Ar'jany Martha
25'
37'
🔁Arthur Zagreout: Per Kloosterboer
37'
🔁Siebe Horemansout: Ángel Alarcón
42'
⚽Ángel Alarcónassist: Marius Broholm
⚽Nökkvi Þeyr Þórissonassist: Tyrone Owusu
44'
45'
🔁Oualid Agougilout: Artem Stepanov
46'
⚽Yoann Cathlineassist: Joris van Overeem
⚽Ar'jany Marthaassist: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson
59'
🔁Gabi Caschiliout: Rojendro Oudsten
61'
🔁Marvin Peersmanout: Jeff Hardeveld
62'
🔁Emirhan Demircanout: Noach Shenkman
70'
71'
Dani De Wit
73'
Per Kloosterboer
74'
🔁Marius Broholmout: Adrian Blake
🔁Ar'jany Marthaout: Fofin Turay
77'
🔁Nökkvi Þeyr Þórissonout: Fabiano Rust
77'
87'
🔁Nikolas Panagiotouout: S. van Duijn

Match stats — Telstar vs Utrecht

35%Possession65%
16Shots15
7On target5
3Corners9
2.49xG1.31

Goals against chances

Telstar4 from 2.49 xGmore than the chances were worth
Utrecht2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Telstar 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. KoemanG
  • 18G. CaschiliD
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 6Isaiah AhmedM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 42A. MarthaM
  • 10T. OwusuM
  • 8E. DemircanM
  • 11N. ÞórissonF
Substitutes
  • 5P. AningM
  • 2J. HardeveldD
  • 14H. KusterM
  • 13Finn MulderG
  • 28R. OudstenD
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 19F. RustF
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 21F. TurayF
Coach: H. Brugge
Utrecht 4-2-3-1
  • 22S. PadtG
  • 2S. HoremansD
  • 3M. DiddenD
  • 5N. PanagiotouD
  • 92A. ZagréD
  • 8J. van OvereemM
  • 38O. AgougilM
  • 23N. VesterlundM
  • 80M. BroholmM
  • 10Y. CathlineM
  • 20D. de WitF
Substitutes
  • 15A. BlakeF
  • 31M. EppinkG
  • 32P. KloosterboerD
  • 18J. MedićD
  • 6G. OfferhausD
  • 21N. Ogidi NwankwoD
  • 9Artem StepanovF
  • 34D. van den BergM
  • 17S. van DuijnF
Coach: A. Correia

Form going into Telstar vs Utrecht

Telstar

Eredivisie

  • L2-3away to GO Ahead Eagles23 October 2026
  • L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
  • D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026

Utrecht

Eredivisie

  • D1-1PEC Zwolle24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Twente18 October 2026
  • W3-1Willem II11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Telstar122461825-710
14Utrecht123362134-1312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Telstar vs Utrecht

  • 11 April 2026Utrecht 4–1 TelstarEredivisie
  • 23 November 2025Telstar 1–1 UtrechtEredivisie

Leading scorers: Telstar and Utrecht

Telstar

GoalsAssists

  • T. Owusu51

Utrecht

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Telstar beat Utrecht 4–2. The model had made a win for Telstar its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Tyrone Owusu 8' for Telstar, Abdelnour Soualhia 25' for Telstar, Ángel Alarcón 42' for Utrecht, Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson 44' for Telstar, Yoann Cathline 46' for Utrecht, Ar'jany Martha 59' for Telstar. On expected goals it finished 2.49–1.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Telstar a 28.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.7% after a win, 29.9% after a draw, 35.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.7%, 6.8 points lower than before the match.

For Utrecht the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.5% going in: 6.7% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 12.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.6%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.