Excelsior vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Excelsior 0-9 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Excelsior, 26% draw, 49% Twente — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Twente at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Excelsior vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 14J. PlugD
- 12K. BosD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 20L. HartjesM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 28N. GroenF
- 8I. YegoianF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 23Y. FineyM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 15S. JanssenD
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 16J. DrommelG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 10Y. TahaM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 11D. RotsF
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 27S. ØrjasæterF
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 2M. RosiakD
- 7M. PjacaF
- 22R. PasveerG
- 39J. MeilinkD
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 18Jordy BawuahM
Form going into Excelsior vs Twente
Excelsior
Eredivisie
- L0-1away to Fortuna Sittard25 October 2026
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
Twente
Eredivisie
- W2-0away to AZ Alkmaar25 October 2026
- L1-2Utrecht18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Twente
Excelsior and Twente have met 7 times in the records we hold, Twente has won 4 of them to Excelsior's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Twente won the last one 9–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| Twente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
EredivisieExcelsior 0–9 Twente - 24 Jan 2026
EredivisieTwente 0–0 Excelsior - 30 Aug 2025
EredivisieExcelsior 1–0 Twente - 10 Feb 2024
EredivisieExcelsior 0–3 Twente - 8 Dec 2023
EredivisieTwente 4–2 Excelsior - 1 Apr 2023
EredivisieExcelsior 0–0 Twente - 31 Aug 2022
EredivisieTwente 4–0 Excelsior
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Twente's attack rates 72% above Excelsior's, and Twente concede 45% fewer than Excelsior. That gives Twente the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Twente
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Twente won 9–0 at Excelsior. The model had made a win for Twente its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Wout Weghorst 12' for Twente, Wout Weghorst 32' for Twente, Wout Weghorst 33' for Twente, Thomas Van den Belt 39' for Twente, Daan Rots 45+1' for Twente, Jordy Bawuah 49' for Twente, Wout Weghorst (penalty) 62' for Twente, Ramiz Zerrouki (penalty) 71' for Twente, Daan Rots 82' for Twente. Sent off: Nesto groen (Excelsior) 5'. On expected goals it finished 0.00–6.29.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Excelsior a 14.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.6% after a win, 13.6% after a draw, 16.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.8%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
For Twente the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.0% going in: 69.5% after a win, 63.5% after a draw, 57.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.5%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.