Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 0-1 Atletico San Luis.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlante FC, 28% draw, 32% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atlante FC at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 34E. JiménezD
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7J. JulioF
- 3G. SánchezD
- 16José GonzálezM
- 37W. ClarD
- 13M. GarcíaM
- 25M. FernándezM
- 32D. BagüíD
- 22R. BarraganG
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 25G. LajudG
- 3Robson BambuD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 2R. TorresM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodríguezF
- 99F. MoraF
- 22Rafa LlorenteF
- 13J. CaicedoM
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 30B. GalindoD
- 5R. MerazM
- 19S. MuñózF
- 8L. NájeraM
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
Form going into Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC
Liga MX
- W1-0away to FC Juarez21 October 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM17 October 2026
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX
- W2-1Club Queretaro21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis
Atlante FC and Atletico San Luis have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atletico San Luis has won 4 of them to Atlante FC's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Atletico San Luis won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| Atletico San Luis | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Liga MXAtlante FC 0–1 Atletico San Luis - 9 Mar 2019
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 0–0 Atlante FC - 26 Nov 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 2–0 Atletico San Luis - 23 Nov 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 3–0 Atlante FC - 6 Oct 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 2–3 Atletico San Luis - 27 Jan 2018
Liga de Expansión MXAtlante FC 3–1 Atletico San Luis - 12 Aug 2017
Liga de Expansión MXAtletico San Luis 2–0 Atlante FC
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico San Luis' attack rates 14% above Atlante FC's, and Atletico San Luis concede 9% fewer than Atlante FC. That gives Atletico San Luis the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 0.57 | 1.44 |
| Atletico San Luis | 0.65 | 1.31 |
The result against the call
Atletico San Luis won 1–0 at Atlante FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 40% and given a win for Atletico San Luis 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Benjamín Galdames 59' for Atletico San Luis. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.62.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlante FC a 33.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.8% after a win, 40.2% after a draw, 51.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.9%, 18.7 points higher than before the match.
For Atletico San Luis the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 19.4% going in: 36.2% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 6.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.2%, 16.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlante FC v Atletico San Luis has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Atlante FC's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Atlante FC win40%▼ −5
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Atletico San Luis win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.