Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Palmeiras, 24% draw, 15% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 56ArthurM
- 11J. AriasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 19R. SosaF
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 45Erick MachadoM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 21BrunoG
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 37FabianoM
- 43BenedettiD
- 12KhellvenD
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 52Ryan TavaresD
- 4AlixD
- 2Guzmán RodríguezD
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 5FabinhoM
- 32J. HerreraM
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 11FernandoM
- 9I. PittaF
- 15I. SosaM
- 47WallaceF
- 1CleitonG
- 23A. Sant'AnnaD
- 56GustavoG
- 17ViniciusF
- 19BruninhoF
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 6GabrielM
Form going into Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
Serie A
- W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
RB Bragantino
Serie A
- D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino have met 7 times in the records we hold, Palmeiras has won 5 of them to RB Bragantino's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Palmeiras won the last one 2–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 |
| RB Bragantino | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie APalmeiras 2–0 RB Bragantino - 26 Apr 2026
Serie ARB Bragantino 0–1 Palmeiras - 15 Oct 2025
Serie APalmeiras 5–1 RB Bragantino - 18 May 2025
Serie ARB Bragantino 1–2 Palmeiras - 28 Jan 2025
Paulista - A1Palmeiras 0–0 RB Bragantino - 5 Oct 2024
Serie ARB Bragantino 0–0 Palmeiras - 21 Jun 2024
Serie APalmeiras 2–1 RB Bragantino
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Palmeiras' attack rates 34% above RB Bragantino's, and Palmeiras concede 36% fewer than RB Bragantino. That gives Palmeiras the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.15 | 0.68 |
| RB Bragantino | 0.86 | 1.07 |
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 2–0. The model had made a win for Palmeiras its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Maurício Magalhães Prado (penalty) 45+11' for Palmeiras, Agustin Giay 77' for Palmeiras. On expected goals it finished 3.39–0.44.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Palmeiras a 35.4% chance to win the league: 40.3% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Palmeiras v RB Bragantino has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 59% / 26% / 15% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 24% / 15%: the biggest move is Palmeiras's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Palmeiras win61%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- RB Bragantino win15%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.