26 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Süper Lig prediction & result

Rams Park, Istanbul
Referee: Atilla Karaoglan, Türkiye
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Galatasaray 2-1 Fenerbahçe.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Galatasaray, 24% draw, 36% Fenerbahçe — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Galatasaray at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Galatasaray95%Draw5%Fenerbahçe0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
I. Kahveci
11'
M. Skriniar
D. Sanchez
19'
⚽V. Osimhenassist: B. Yilmaz
29'
31'
N. Kante
⚽V. Osimhenassist: D. Sanchez
44'
O. Buruk
45+1'
54'
N. Semedo
55'
🔁M. Greenwoodout: K. Akturkoglu
56'
🔁L. Mercanout: K. Peprah
62'
⚽I. Kahveciassist: O. Aydin
🔁B. Yilmazout: R. Leao
64'
78'
🔁O. Aydinout: D. Nene
78'
🔁I. Kahveciout: M. Yandas
🔁Y. Akgunout: L. Sane
80'
🔁A. Batrakovout: Gabriel Sara
80'
🔁I. Jakobsout: E. Elmali
80'
83'
🔁N. Kanteout: V. Muriqi
🔁V. Osimhenout: W. Singo
88'
R. Leao
89'
90+1'
A. Brown

Match stats — Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

62%Possession38%
23Shots4
8On target3
10Corners4
2.27xG0.31

Goals against chances

Galatasaray2 from 2.27 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fenerbahçe1 from 0.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Galatasaray 4-2-3-1
  • 1Uğurcan ÇakırG
  • 7Roland SallaiD
  • 6Davinson SánchezD
  • 42Abdülkerim BardakcıD
  • 4Ismail JakobsD
  • 34Lucas TorreiraM
  • 99Mario LeminaM
  • 11Yunus AkgünM
  • 83Aleksey BatrakovM
  • 53Barış Alper YılmazM
  • 45Victor OsimhenF
Substitutes
  • 27Rafael LeãoF
  • 17Eren ElmalıD
  • 10Leroy SanéF
  • 8Gabriel SaraM
  • 90Wilfried SingoD
  • 24Jankat YılmazG
  • 74Renato NhagaM
  • 20İlkay GündoğanM
  • 18Lesley UgochukwuM
Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27Nélson SemedoD
  • 37Milan ŠkriniarD
  • 3Archie BrownD
  • 22Levent MercanD
  • 6Mattéo GuendouziM
  • 91N'Golo KantéM
  • 11Mason GreenwoodM
  • 17İrfan Can KahveciM
  • 70Oğuz AydınM
  • 9Romelu LukakuF
Substitutes
  • 7Kerem AktürkoğluF
  • 21Kojo Peprah OppongD
  • 8Mert Hakan YandaşM
  • 45Dorgeles NeneF
  • 19Vedat MuriqiF
  • 34Mert GünokG
  • 18Mert MüldürD
  • 14Yiğit Efe DemirD
  • 28Bartuğ ElmazM

Form going into Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Galatasaray

Süper Lig

  • W1-0away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.17 October 2026
  • W3-1Kasımpaşa9 October 2026

Fenerbahçe

Süper Lig

  • W3-0Alanyaspor17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Galatasaray119112715+1228
6Fenerbahçe116142910+1919

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Galatasaray

Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray have met 7 times in the records we hold, Galatasaray has won 4 of them to Fenerbahçe's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Galatasaray won the last one 2–1 on 26 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Fenerbahçe124611
Galatasaray421116

Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 26 Oct 2026
    Süper Lig    Galatasaray 2–1 Fenerbahçe
  • 26 Apr 2026
    Süper Lig    Galatasaray 3–0 Fenerbahçe
  • 10 Jan 2026
    Super Cup    Galatasaray 0–2 Fenerbahçe
  • 1 Dec 2025
    Süper Lig    Fenerbahçe 1–1 Galatasaray
  • 2 Apr 2025
    Türkiye Kupası    Fenerbahçe 1–2 Galatasaray
  • 24 Feb 2025
    Süper Lig    Galatasaray 0–0 Fenerbahçe
  • 21 Sep 2024
    Süper Lig    Fenerbahçe 1–3 Galatasaray

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Fenerbahçe concede 9% fewer than Galatasaray. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Fenerbahçe1.350.89
Galatasaray1.380.98

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe

Galatasaray

GoalsAssists

  • V. Osimhen93

Fenerbahçe

GoalsAssists

  • V. Muriqi71
  • M. Greenwood62
  • İ. Kahveci53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Galatasaray beat Fenerbahçe 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Galatasaray at 40%. The goals: V. Osimhen 29' for Galatasaray, V. Osimhen 44' for Galatasaray, I. Kahveci 62' for Fenerbahçe. On expected goals it finished 2.27–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Galatasaray a 30.8% chance to win the league: 37.7% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.7%, 6.9 points higher than before the match.

For Fenerbahçe the question was the chance to win the league, 33.2% going in: 40.9% after a win, 33.7% after a draw, 25.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.6%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.