3 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Derby vs Norwich Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Referee: Sam Allison
Full time0 – 4

Final score: Derby 0-4 Norwich.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Derby, 27% draw, 39% Norwich — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby0%Draw1%Norwich99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Anthony Musaba
27'
⚽Paris Maghomaassist: Jack Stacey
Ryan Nyambe
38'
44'
⚽Darlin Yongwa
🔁Alex Mowattout: Lewis Travis
45'
🔁Isaac Gordonout: Jack Robinson
45'
🔁Oscar Frauloout: Mohammed Fuseini
45'
61'
🔁Andre Brooksout: Lucien Mahovo
61'
🔁Paris Maghomaout: J. Makama
🔁Sammie Szmodicsout: Filip Bilbija
64'
66'
⚽J. Makama
71'
🔁Anthony Musabaout: Oscar Schwartau
71'
🔁Mathias Kvistgaardenout: Ante Crnac
🔁Henrik Wendel Meisterout: Rhian Brewster
73'
88'
🔁Jack Staceyout: Kellen Fisher

Match stats — Derby vs Norwich

46%Possession54%
6Shots19
2On target8
4Corners5
0.73xG1.82

Goals against chances

Derby0 from 0.73 xGless than the chances were worth
Norwich4 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derby 4-4-2
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 43I. GordonD
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 19H. MeisterF
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 13F. BilbijaM
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 10R. BrewsterF
  • 25S. DuffyD
  • 16M. FuseiniF
  • 14J. RobinsonD
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 27L. TravisM
  • 31J. VickersG
Coach: J. Eustace
Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 49A. MusabaM
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
Substitutes
  • 17A. CrnacF
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 1V. KovačevićG
  • 12L. MahovoD
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 29O. SchwartauF
  • 20A. Ben SlimaneM
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 33J. CórdobaD
Coach: P. Clement

Form going into Derby vs Norwich

Derby

Championship

  • L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
  • L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026

Norwich

Championship

  • W3-2Watford31 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
  • L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Derby152491430-1610
12Norwich157083224+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Norwich

Derby and Norwich have met 7 times in the records we hold, Norwich has won 4 of them to Derby's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

Norwich won the last one 4–0 on 3 Nov 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Derby214611
Norwich412116

Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 3 Nov 2026
    Championship    Derby 0–4 Norwich
  • 21 Apr 2026
    Championship    Norwich 2–1 Derby
  • 21 Oct 2025
    Championship    Derby 1–0 Norwich
  • 8 Feb 2025
    Championship    Norwich 1–1 Derby
  • 28 Sep 2024
    Championship    Derby 2–3 Norwich
  • 10 Apr 2021
    Championship    Derby 0–1 Norwich
  • 3 Oct 2020
    Championship    Norwich 0–1 Derby

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Norwich's attack rates 54% above Derby's, and Norwich concede 13% fewer than Derby. That gives Norwich the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Derby0.631.56
Norwich0.971.35

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Derby and Norwich

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Norwich won 4–0 at Derby. The model had made a win for Norwich its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Anthony Musaba 8' for Norwich, Paris Maghoma 27' for Norwich, Darlin Yongwa 44' for Norwich, J. Makama 66' for Norwich. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 44.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 38.7% after a win, 43.8% after a draw, 49.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.7%, 5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Derby v Norwich has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Norwich's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Derby win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Norwich win39%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.