3 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Portsmouth vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

Fratton Park, Portsmouth
Referee: Matthew Corlett
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Portsmouth 3-1 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Portsmouth, 31% draw, 33% Swansea — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portsmouth at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Portsmouth3%Draw94%Swansea3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ebou Adams
21'
24'
🔁Stephen Welshout: Ben Cabango
⚽Terry Devlinassist: Odin Bailey
36'
45'
🔁melker widellout: Elijah Just
🔁Iyad Mohamedout: Marlon Pack
54'
61'
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
🔁Adrian Segecicout: Abu Kamara
73'
🔁Ebou Adamsout: Josh Murphy
73'
🔁Marko Milovanovićout: Thomas Waddingham
73'
74'
🔁Jay Fultonout: Ross Stewart
74'
🔁Filip Lissahout: Josh Key
🔁Tyrese Shadeout: Zak Swanson
81'
Regan Poole
83'
85'
⚽Zan Vipotnik (pen)
89'
Vitor Matos
⚽Terry Devlin
90+2'
⚽Thomas Waddingham
90+8'

Match stats — Portsmouth vs Swansea

36%Possession64%
13Shots9
5On target3
5Corners5
1.32xG1.74

Goals against chances

Portsmouth3 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
Swansea1 from 1.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchmidG
  • 24T. DevlinD
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 55M. DiaD
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 38E. AdamsM
  • 37I. MohamedM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 17T. ShadeM
  • 29M. MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 11A. KamaraF
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenF
  • 20T. WaddinghamF
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 7M. PackM
  • 6C. ShaughnessyD
  • 19R. SheinM
Coach: John Mousinho
Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 7M. WidellF
Substitutes
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 16Tom IorpendaM
  • 8E. JustF
  • 2J. KeyD
  • 12J. MongaF
  • 31R. StewartF
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 44Thomas WoodwardM
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into Portsmouth vs Swansea

Portsmouth

Championship

  • D0-0away to Burnley31 October 2026
  • W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026

Swansea

Championship

  • W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
  • L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
  • L0-1West Ham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Portsmouth156452018+222
6Swansea158252218+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Swansea

  • 10 March 2026Portsmouth 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
  • 9 December 2025Swansea 1–0 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 1 January 2025Portsmouth 4–0 SwanseaChampionship
  • 30 November 2024Swansea 2–2 PortsmouthChampionship

The full Portsmouth vs Swansea record →

The result against the call

Portsmouth beat Swansea 3–1. The model had made a win for Portsmouth its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Terry Devlin 36' for Portsmouth, Zan Vipotnik (penalty) 85' for Swansea, Terry Devlin 90+2' for Portsmouth, Thomas Waddingham 90+8' for Portsmouth. On expected goals it finished 1.32–1.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swansea a 13.2% chance to finish in the top two: 16.4% after a win, 13.0% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Portsmouth v Swansea has moved

First published on 20 Oct at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 31% / 33%: the biggest move is Portsmouth's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Portsmouth win36%▲ +4
  2. Draw31%=
  3. Swansea win33%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.