25 October 2026, 20:00 UTC

Independiente vs Boca Juniors Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Avellaneda
Referee: Nazareno Arasa
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Independiente 0-1 Boca Juniors.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Independiente, 30% draw, 39% Boca Juniors — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Boca Juniors at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Independiente0%Draw3%Boca Juniors97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Lautaro Di Lollo
Iván Marcone
45+1'
Chimy Ávila
53'
60'
🔁A. Velascoout: S. Villa
Mateo Perez Curci
64'
66'
🔁Miguel Merentielout: E. Valencia
67'
Milton Delgado
🔁J. Palaisout: M. Abaldo
69'
77'
Facundo Herrera
🔁M. Mezaout: I. Morales
77'
🔁M. Perez Curciout: D. Martinez
78'
81'
🔁L. Floresout: Carlos Palacios
🔁C. Avilaout: T. Parmo
86'
🔁S. Montielout: F. Tempone
86'
88'
⚽F. Herreraassist: S. Villa
90+2'
Malcom Braida

Match stats — Independiente vs Boca Juniors

34%Possession66%
23Shots10
5On target4
4Corners3
1.64xG1.61

Goals against chances

Independiente0 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Boca Juniors1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Independiente 4-3-3
  • 77S. MeleG
  • 4S. AriasD
  • 36S. ValdezD
  • 35J. ArrayagoD
  • 5N. BanegasD
  • 16M. Perez CurciM
  • 23I. MarconeM
  • 8M. MezaM
  • 7S. MontielF
  • 6C. AvilaF
  • 24J. PalaisF
Substitutes
  • 33R. ReyG
  • 22F. ZabalaD
  • 29L. GodoyD
  • 2F. CalderonD
  • 13J. FedorcoD
  • 10L. CabralM
  • 32D. MartinezM
  • 14L. MillanM
  • 9I. MoralesF
Coach: Jadson Viera
Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MonteroG
  • 17L. LozanoD
  • 2L. Di LolloD
  • 42F. HerreraD
  • 27M. BraidaD
  • 5L. ParedesM
  • 18M. DelgadoM
  • 25S. AscacibarM
  • 20A. VelascoM
  • 19L. FloresM
  • 16Miguel MerentielF
Substitutes
  • 12L. BreyG
  • 4J. FigalD
  • 26M. PellegrinoD
  • 32A. CostaD
  • 24D. GorositoD
  • 6R. BattagliaM
  • 7Carlos PalaciosF
  • 15W. H. Alarcon CepedaM
  • 53J. RuizF
Coach: Rodolfo Arruabarrena

Form going into Independiente vs Boca Juniors

Independiente

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026

Boca Juniors

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Independiente166551516-123
2Boca Juniors169612414+1033

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Independiente

Boca Juniors and Independiente have met 7 times in the records we hold, Boca Juniors has won 2 of them to Independiente's 1, with 4 drawn.

The record

Boca Juniors won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Boca Juniors24164
Independiente14246

Between them these 7 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.43 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 25 Oct 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Independiente 0–1 Boca Juniors
  • 11 Apr 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Boca Juniors 1–1 Independiente
  • 20 May 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Boca Juniors 0–1 Independiente
  • 14 Dec 2024
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Boca Juniors 0–0 Independiente
  • 29 Jul 2023
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Independiente 0–2 Boca Juniors
  • 8 Jan 2023
    Friendlies Clubs    Boca Juniors 0–0 Independiente
  • 23 Oct 2022
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Boca Juniors 2–2 Independiente

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Boca Juniors' attack rates 31% above Independiente's, and Boca Juniors concede 24% fewer than Independiente. That gives Boca Juniors the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Boca Juniors1.020.93
Independiente0.781.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Independiente and Boca Juniors

Independiente

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos115

Boca Juniors

GoalsAssists

  • M. Merentiel92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Boca Juniors won 1–0 at Independiente. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Boca Juniors at 39%. The goal: F. Herrera 88' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente a 76.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 97.4% after a win, 76.1% after a draw, 62.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.7%, 13.6 points lower than before the match.

For Boca Juniors the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 9.3% going in: 17.4% after a win, 3.7% after a draw, 1.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.4%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.