River Plate vs Racing Club Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: River Plate 1-0 Racing Club.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% River Plate, 27% draw, 20% Racing Club — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
River Plate at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — River Plate vs Racing Club
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41S. BeltranG
- 29G. MontielD
- 30N. OtamendiD
- 13L. RiveroD
- 3F. OrtegaD
- 50T. AndradaM
- 6A. MorenoM
- 26T. GalvanM
- 23T. AlmadaM
- 10A. CorreaF
- 18L. BeltranF
- 33E. CenturionG
- 20G. GonzalezD
- 2T. RamirezD
- 31F. GonzalezD
- 8M. ArambarriM
- 24J. MezaM
- 43V. LuceroM
- 27S. EspindolaM
- 25L. PereyraF
- 25F. CambesesG
- 4E. CannavoD
- 38M. MartinezD
- 43G. EscuderoD
- 19I. RodriguezD
- 46A. TelloM
- 5M. KranevitterM
- 20G. A. LodicoM
- 11M. ZarachoM
- 9Adrian MartinezF
- 17T. ConechnyF
- 30M. TagliamonteG
- 14J. BarinagaD
- 2M. PerezD
- 42G. VolpeD
- 23N. ColomboD
- 16U. OrtegozaM
- 24A. FernandezM
- 32L. DiazF
- 40F. FragaF
Form going into River Plate vs Racing Club
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W3-0away to Belgrano Cordoba18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin14 October 2026
Racing Club
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Independiente18 October 2026
- L0-2Belgrano Cordoba11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | River Plate | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 26 |
| 13 | Racing Club | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Club vs River Plate
Racing Club and River Plate have met 7 times in the records we hold, River Plate has won 5 of them to Racing Club's 2.
The record
River Plate won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| River Plate | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 1–0 Racing Club - 12 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 0–2 River Plate - 24 Nov 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 3–2 River Plate - 2 Oct 2025
Copa ArgentinaRacing Club 0–1 River Plate - 15 Dec 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 1–0 River Plate - 29 Jul 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRiver Plate 2–1 Racing Club - 23 Oct 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaRacing Club 1–2 River Plate
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, River Plate's attack rates 25% above Racing Club's, and River Plate concede 25% fewer than Racing Club. That gives River Plate the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 0.75 | 1.35 |
| River Plate | 0.94 | 1.01 |
Leading scorers: River Plate and Racing Club
River Plate
GoalsAssists
- T. Galván74
Racing Club
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
River Plate beat Racing Club 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for River Plate at 53%. The goal: L. Rivero 33' for River Plate. On expected goals it finished 1.56–0.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave River Plate a 95.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.9% after a win, 94.9% after a draw, 84.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.9%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Racing Club the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 43.7% going in: 13.6% after a win, 39.9% after a draw, 54.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.1%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on River Plate v Racing Club has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 53% / 27% / 20%: the biggest move is River Plate's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- River Plate win53%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Racing Club win20%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.