FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Augsburg 1-1 Union Berlin.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% FC Augsburg, 23% draw, 21% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.79, 4.35 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
FC Augsburg at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. DahmenG
- 35Abdulay BahD
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 27M. WolfM
- 4H. MassengoM
- 32F. RiederM
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 30A. KadeM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 7Seol Young-WooD
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 39U. OgunduF
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 10M. KömürM
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 1F. RønnowG
- 19J. HabererD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 21T. SkarkeF
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 31M. RaabG
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 17D. KöhnD
- 6A. KemleinM
- 32M. GrayF
- 7O. BurkeF
Form going into FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
Union Berlin
Bundesliga
- D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
FC Augsburg and Union Berlin have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at FC Augsburg on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Union Berlin | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin - 16 May 2026
BundesligaUnion Berlin 4–0 FC Augsburg - 15 Jan 2026
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin - 17 May 2025
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–2 Union Berlin - 15 Jan 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 0–2 FC Augsburg - 12 Apr 2024
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–0 Union Berlin - 25 Nov 2023
BundesligaUnion Berlin 1–1 FC Augsburg
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FC Augsburg's attack rates 53% above Union Berlin's, and Union Berlin concede 6% fewer than FC Augsburg. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| Union Berlin | 0.70 | 1.08 |
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Augsburg and Union Berlin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Augsburg at 56% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Han-Noah Massengo 71' for FC Augsburg, Janik Haberer 74' for Union Berlin. Sent off: Felix Uduokhai (Union Berlin) 19', Juma Bah (FC Augsburg) 63'. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Union Berlin a 36.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 30.0% after a win, 35.5% after a draw, 39.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 35.5%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Augsburg v Union Berlin has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 58% / 21% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 56% / 23% / 21%: the biggest move is FC Augsburg's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- FC Augsburg win56%▼ −2
- Draw23%▲ +2
- Union Berlin win21%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.