FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% FSV Mainz 05, 24% draw, 28% Werder Bremen — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
FSV Mainz 05 at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 21D. da CostaD
- 4S. PoschD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 3F. GruberD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 5E. MartelM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 8P. NebelM
- 30S. WidmerD
- 1K. HeinG
- 13ArthurD
- 5A. PieperD
- 32M. FriedlD
- 2O. DemanD
- 15L. ReisM
- 44Y. RegeerM
- 8M. WeiserM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 18E. DinkçiF
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
- 26C. IttenF
- 14S. LynenM
- 19K. QuetantF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 3O. WójcikD
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen have met 7 times in the records we hold, Werder Bremen has won 5 of them to FSV Mainz 05's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Werder Bremen won the last one 3–2 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Werder Bremen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen - 15 Mar 2026
BundesligaWerder Bremen 0–2 FSV Mainz 05 - 1 Nov 2025
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–1 Werder Bremen - 31 Jan 2025
BundesligaWerder Bremen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05 - 15 Sep 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–2 Werder Bremen - 3 Feb 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 0–1 Werder Bremen - 2 Sep 2023
BundesligaWerder Bremen 4–0 FSV Mainz 05
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FSV Mainz 05's attack rates 10% above Werder Bremen's, and Werder Bremen concede 13% fewer than FSV Mainz 05. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| Werder Bremen | 0.92 | 0.98 |
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Werder Bremen won 3–2 at FSV Mainz 05. The model had leaned towards a win for FSV Mainz 05 at 48% and given a win for Werder Bremen 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) 7' for Werder Bremen, Niclas Füllkrug (penalty) 25' for Werder Bremen, Anthony Caci 33' for FSV Mainz 05, Ludovit Reis 61' for Werder Bremen, Lee Jae-Sung 63' for FSV Mainz 05. On expected goals it finished 1.73–2.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FSV Mainz 05 a 7.2% chance to finish in the top four: 8.5% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.6%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.
For Werder Bremen the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 8.9% going in: 5.4% after a win, 8.4% after a draw, 10.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.4%, 3.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.