Liverpool vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 2-0 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Liverpool, 26% draw, 40% Brighton — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 9A. IsakF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 2J. GomezD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 3W. EndoM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 67L. KoumasF
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 5L. DunkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 13P. GroßM
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 25D. GómezM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 12P. DavidF
- 15I. OsmanF
- 10G. RutterF
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 8J. HinshelwoodM
- 20CostinhaD
- 3J. HadjamD
- 23J. SteeleG
Form going into Liverpool vs Brighton
Liverpool
Premier League
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
Brighton
Premier League
- W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Liverpool
Brighton and Liverpool have met 7 times in the records we hold, Liverpool has won 5 of them to Brighton's 2.
The record
Liverpool won the last one 2–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 15 |
| Liverpool | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–0 Brighton - 21 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueBrighton 2–1 Liverpool - 14 Feb 2026
FA CupLiverpool 3–0 Brighton - 13 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–0 Brighton - 19 May 2025
Premier LeagueBrighton 3–2 Liverpool - 2 Nov 2024
Premier LeagueLiverpool 2–1 Brighton - 30 Oct 2024
League CupBrighton 2–3 Liverpool
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Brighton's attack rates 4% above Liverpool's, and Brighton concede 12% fewer than Liverpool. That gives Brighton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Brighton
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool beat Brighton 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Brighton at 40% and given a win for Liverpool 34%. The goals: Pascal Groß (own goal) 17' for Liverpool, Alexander Isak 21' for Liverpool. On expected goals it finished 0.95–1.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Liverpool a 31.0% chance to finish in the top four: 35.9% after a win, 29.7% after a draw, 27.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.9%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.
For Brighton the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 81.7% going in: 85.6% after a win, 81.7% after a draw, 77.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 77.5%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Liverpool v Brighton has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 39% / 26% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is Liverpool's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Liverpool win34%▼ −5
- Draw26%=
- Brighton win40%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.