24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Stoke City vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result

Stoke on Trent
Referee: James Bell, England
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Stoke City 0-0 Bristol City.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Stoke City, 29% draw, 27% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Stoke City at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stoke City4%Draw93%Bristol City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Lamine Cisséout: George Hirst
21'
El Hadji Soumare
31'
43'
Luke McNally
62'
🔁lorent tolajout: Sam Bellis
62'
🔁Gibson Osahumen Yahout: Brian de Keersmaecker
🔁El Hadji Soumareout: Junior Tchamadeu
69'
71'
Jason Knight
🔁Justin Devennyout: Róbert Boženík
81'
87'
🔁Dominic Ballardout: Jed Wallace
88'
🔁Jason Knightout: Adam Randell

Match stats — Stoke City vs Bristol City

63%Possession37%
11Shots8
1On target0
5Corners6
0.71xG0.79

Goals against chances

Stoke City0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Bristol City0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stoke City 3-4-3
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 21L. BombinoM
  • 7J. McGlynnF
  • 13J. DevennyF
  • 11L. CisséF
Substitutes
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 23B. GibsonD
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 22J. TchamadeuD
Coach: M. Robins
Bristol City 4-2-3-1
  • 40B. CollinsG
  • 3C. PringD
  • 19G. TannerD
  • 15L. McNallyD
  • 2L. EissatD
  • 12J. KnightM
  • 8J. WilliamsM
  • 21Rio CardinesM
  • 23D. BallardM
  • 27G. YahM
  • 9L. TolajF
Substitutes
  • 5R. AtkinsonD
  • 11S. BellF
  • 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
  • 20S. GreenwoodM
  • 7Y. HirakawaM
  • 4A. RandellM
  • 1S. TickleG
  • 10S. TwineM
  • 17J. WallaceM
Coach: M. Skubala

Form going into Stoke City vs Bristol City

Stoke City

Championship

  • W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026

Bristol City

Championship

  • L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Stoke City159242418+629
17Bristol City155371624-818

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Stoke City

Bristol City and Stoke City have met 7 times in the records we hold, Stoke City has won 3 of them to Bristol City's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 0–0 at Stoke City on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Bristol City223914
Stoke City322149

Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Championship    Stoke City 0–0 Bristol City
  • 2 May 2026
    Championship    Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City
  • 1 Nov 2025
    Championship    Stoke City 5–1 Bristol City
  • 12 Feb 2025
    Championship    Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City
  • 22 Oct 2024
    Championship    Stoke City 2–2 Bristol City
  • 4 May 2024
    Championship    Stoke City 4–0 Bristol City
  • 30 Sep 2023
    Championship    Bristol City 2–3 Stoke City

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Stoke City's attack rates 18% above Bristol City's, and Stoke City concede 14% fewer than Bristol City. That gives Stoke City the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Bristol City0.611.44
Stoke City0.721.24

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Bristol City

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Bristol City

GoalsAssists

  • S. Twine50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stoke City and Bristol City drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Stoke City at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.71–0.79.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bristol City a 12.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.3% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 11.2%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Stoke City v Bristol City has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Bristol City's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Stoke City win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Bristol City win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.