24 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

QPR vs Swansea Championship prediction & result

Loftus Road, London
Referee: Sam Allison, England
Full time5 – 0

Final score: QPR 5-0 Swansea.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% QPR, 30% draw, 36% Swansea — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Swansea at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

QPR99%Draw1%Swansea0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Richard Koneassist: Paul Smyth
2'
⚽Richard Koneassist: Kwame Poku
9'
14'
Lawrence Vigouroux
⚽Richard Kone (pen)
15'
Richard Kone
16'
34'
Elijah Just
⚽Jimmy Dunneassist: Harvey Vale
45+1'
45'
🔁Stephen Welshout: Jenson Seelt
45'
🔁Elijah Justout: Jay Fulton
54'
Marko Stamenić
Paul Smyth
59'
64'
🔁Marko Stamenićout: Goncalo Franco
64'
🔁Joseph Amankwaah Opokuout: Eom Ji-Sung
🔁Paul Smythout: Rayan Jawad Kolli
72'
🔁Kwame Pokuout: Karamoko Dembélé
72'
🔁Harvey Valeout: Koki Saito
72'
74'
🔁Adam Idahout: Zan Vipotnik
🔁Boy Kemperout: Dennis Cirkin
80'
⚽Jimmy Dunneassist: Richard Kone
86'
🔁Richard Koneout: Isak Alemayehu Mulugeta
87'

Match stats — QPR vs Swansea

40%Possession60%
12Shots8
5On target3
6Corners8
3.3xG0.27

Goals against chances

QPR5 from 3.30 xGmore than the chances were worth
Swansea0 from 0.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

QPR 4-1-4-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 5R. EdwardsD
  • 12B. KemperD
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 17K. PokuM
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 11P. SmythM
  • 22R. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 23I. AlemayehuM
  • 19D. CirkinD
  • 7K. DembéléM
  • 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
  • 4L. MorrisonD
  • 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
  • 14K. SaitoF
  • 13C. WardG
  • 33Leon ScarlettF
Coach: Julien Stéphan
Swansea 4-3-3
  • 22L. VigourouxG
  • 26F. LissahD
  • 5B. CabangoD
  • 23S. WelshD
  • 14J. TymonD
  • 8E. JustM
  • 6M. StamenićM
  • 46S. EustáquioM
  • 7M. WidellF
  • 33A. IdahF
  • 30Joseph OkopuF
Substitutes
  • 17Gonçalo FrancoM
  • 4J. FultonM
  • 20Tiago ParenteD
  • 3J. SeeltD
  • 31R. StewartF
  • 9Z. VipotnikF
  • 1A. FisherG
  • 10Eom Ji-SungF
  • 12J. MongaF
Coach: Vítor Matos

Form going into QPR vs Swansea

QPR

Championship

  • L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026

Swansea

Championship

  • L0-1West Ham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8QPR156632418+624
6Swansea158252218+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: QPR vs Swansea

QPR and Swansea have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.

The record

QPR won the last one 5–0 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
QPR313108
Swansea313810

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Championship    QPR 5–0 Swansea
  • 21 Apr 2026
    Championship    QPR 1–2 Swansea
  • 22 Oct 2025
    Championship    Swansea 0–1 QPR
  • 21 Apr 2025
    Championship    QPR 1–2 Swansea
  • 26 Dec 2024
    Championship    Swansea 3–0 QPR
  • 1 Apr 2024
    Championship    Swansea 0–1 QPR
  • 19 Sep 2023
    Championship    QPR 1–1 Swansea

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, QPR's attack rates 3% above Swansea's, and Swansea concede 8% fewer than QPR. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
QPR0.761.34
Swansea0.741.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: QPR and Swansea

QPR

GoalsAssists

  • R. Kone51

Swansea

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

QPR beat Swansea 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Swansea at 36% and given a win for QPR 34%. The goals: Richard Kone 2' for QPR, Richard Kone 9' for QPR, Richard Kone (penalty) 15' for QPR, Jimmy Dunne 45+1' for QPR, Jimmy Dunne 86' for QPR. On expected goals it finished 3.30–0.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swansea a 18.2% chance to finish in the top two: 21.8% after a win, 16.4% after a draw, 15.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.2%, 3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.