Sheffield Utd vs Derby Championship prediction & result
Final score: Sheffield Utd 1-1 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sheffield Utd, 27% draw, 24% Derby — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Utd at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. CooperG
- 8H. ChoudhuryD
- 5J. TangangaD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 14H. BurrowsD
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 4O. ArblasterM
- 19T. ChongM
- 9T. CannonM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 45P. BamfordF
- 10J. AyewF
- 33J. BaptisteM
- 23T. CampbellF
- 11R. DonovanM
- 3S. McCallumD
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 7J. RothwellM
- 38F. SerikiD
- 31Tommy BettsG
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 23J. WardD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 4D. OzohM
- 10R. BrewsterM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 19H. MeisterM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 16M. FuseiniF
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 20A. MowattM
- 14J. RobinsonD
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 13F. BilbijaM
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Derby
Sheffield Utd
Championship
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
Derby
Championship
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Sheffield Utd
Derby and Sheffield Utd have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sheffield Utd has won 4 of them to Derby's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Sheffield Utd on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| Sheffield Utd | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–1 Derby - 2 May 2026
ChampionshipDerby 1–2 Sheffield Utd - 1 Nov 2025
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–3 Derby - 1 Feb 2025
ChampionshipDerby 0–1 Sheffield Utd - 21 Sep 2024
ChampionshipSheffield Utd 1–0 Derby - 29 Jul 2023
Friendlies ClubsDerby 1–3 Sheffield Utd - 15 Jan 2022
ChampionshipDerby 2–0 Sheffield Utd
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Sheffield Utd's attack rates 21% above Derby's, and Sheffield Utd concede 15% fewer than Derby. That gives Sheffield Utd the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Derby | 0.63 | 1.56 |
| Sheffield Utd | 0.76 | 1.33 |
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Derby
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sheffield Utd and Derby drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sheffield Utd at 49% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bobby Clark 37' for Derby, Patrick Bamford 79' for Sheffield Utd. Sent off: Dion Sanderson (Derby) 66'. On expected goals it finished 2.55–1.15.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 37.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.4% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 40.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.7%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sheffield Utd v Derby has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Sheffield Utd's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Sheffield Utd win49%▲ +5
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Derby win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.