Juventus vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Juventus 2-0 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Juventus, 30% draw, 37% Napoli — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventus vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 32J. CabalD
- 22W. McKennieM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 18J. EkhatorF
- 20A. CambiasoD
- 13J. BogaF
- 4F. GattiD
- 6L. KellyD
- 33NetoG
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 24D. RuganiD
- 29P. SarrM
- 1A. MeretG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 20L. LuccaF
- 70N. LangF
- 26A. VergaraM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 6B. GilmourM
- 23GiovaneF
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 41D. SpinelliG
- 18F. BaridoM
- 38A. ChiummarielloM
Form going into Juventus vs Napoli
Juventus
Serie A
- L0-2away to Genoa28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lecce25 October 2026
- L0-3Lazio18 October 2026
Napoli
Serie A
- W4-1away to Monza28 October 2026
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Napoli
Juventus and Napoli have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Juventus won the last one 2–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Napoli | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.14 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Serie AJuventus 2–0 Napoli - 25 Jan 2026
Serie AJuventus 3–0 Napoli - 7 Dec 2025
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 25 Jan 2025
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 21 Sep 2024
Serie AJuventus 0–0 Napoli - 3 Mar 2024
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 8 Dec 2023
Serie AJuventus 1–0 Napoli
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Napoli's attack rates 10% above Juventus', and Juventus concede 3% fewer than Napoli. How the ratings are derived.
The result against the call
Juventus beat Napoli 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Napoli at 37% and given a win for Juventus 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Kerim Alajbegovic 70' for Juventus, Jérémie Boga 87' for Juventus. Sent off: Luca Marianucci (Napoli) 75'. On expected goals it finished 0.87–0.58.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventus a 10.4% chance to finish in the top four: 13.5% after a win, 9.7% after a draw, 6.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.5%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.
For Napoli the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 30.5% going in: 35.9% after a win, 30.0% after a draw, 24.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.3%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Juventus v Napoli has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 33% / 30% / 37%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Juventus win33%▼ −6
- Draw30%=
- Napoli win37%▲ +6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.