Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 0-2 Sporting CP.
Before kick-off the model made it 12% Casa Pia, 19% draw, 69% Sporting CP — fair odds of 8.33, 5.26 and 1.45.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting CP at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 24S. PérezM
- 80L. OforiM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 90CassianoF
- 16SilviM
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 4João GoulartD
- 20A. JattaF
- 98JPM
- 30KaiqueG
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 20M. AraújoD
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 4S. AndersenM
- 31Luis GuilhermeM
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 19N. IrankundaM
- 97L. SuárezF
- 8João SimõesM
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 58Flávio GonçalvesF
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 28J. DerryF
- 10Geny CatamoM
Form going into Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
- W2-0away to Estrela24 October 2026
- L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
Sporting CP
Primeira Liga
- L1-2Academico Viseu25 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Braga9 October 2026
- D2-2Arouca19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
Casa Pia and Sporting CP have met 7 times in the records we hold, Sporting CP has won 7 of them to Casa Pia's 0.
The record
Sporting CP won the last one 2–0 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 22 |
| Sporting CP | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 2 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 3.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP - 16 Jan 2026
Primeira LigaSporting CP 3–0 Casa Pia - 8 Aug 2025
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 0–2 Sporting CP - 9 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 1–3 Sporting CP - 5 Oct 2024
Primeira LigaSporting CP 2–0 Casa Pia - 29 Jan 2024
Primeira LigaSporting CP 8–0 Casa Pia - 18 Aug 2023
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 1–2 Sporting CP
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Sporting CP's attack rates 163% above Casa Pia's, and Sporting CP concede 33% fewer than Casa Pia. That gives Sporting CP the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Sporting CP | 1.58 | 0.80 |
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Sporting CP
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Sporting CP
GoalsAssists
- L. Suárez91
- Flávio Gonçalves31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting CP won 2–0 at Casa Pia. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Sporting CP at 69%. The goals: Pedro Lima Barros 13' for Sporting CP, Geny Catamo 90+4' for Sporting CP. On expected goals it finished 0.39–2.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Casa Pia a 56.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.8% after a win, 53.6% after a draw, 58.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.5%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
For Sporting CP the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 36.1% going in: 38.0% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.0%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Casa Pia v Sporting CP has moved
First published on 16 Oct at 10% / 17% / 73% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 12% / 19% / 69%: the biggest move is Sporting CP's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Casa Pia win12%▲ +2
- Draw19%▲ +2
- Sporting CP win69%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.