Chapecoense
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Chapecoense 0-2 Vasco da Gama.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Chapecoense, 26% draw, 46% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 3.57, 3.85 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Chapecoense 1.26, Vasco da Gama 1.76.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Model insights: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
Vasco da Gama at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 14Gabriel WernerG
- 5HeitorD
- 25Victor CaetanoD
- 21KauanD
- 91Bruno PachecoD
- 27CamiloM
- 88Yago FelipeM
- 22MaxM
- 10Giovanni AugustoM
- 77Dylan BorreroM
- 9Tulio EduardoF
- 19David AntunesM
- 12FernandoD
- 39Rodrigo EndrioF
- 35Vinícius Eduardo de AlmeidaD
- 80Miguel CarvalhoM
- 30MatheusG
- 20Bruno TubarãoF
- 6ManchaD
- 8Robert SantosF
- 1Léo JardimG
- 2Puma RodríguezD
- 4Alan SaldiviaD
- 30Robert RenanD
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 8JairM
- 18Marino HinestrozaM
- 22Alan LescanoM
- 9Facundo ColidioM
- 11Andrés GómezM
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 66CuiabanoD
- 45Loide AugustoF
- 20BrennerF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 55Gabriel PereiraD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
- 85Mateus CarvalhoM
Form going into Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Chapecoense
Serie A
- L1-2Mirassol3 November 2026
- L0-3away to RB Bragantino28 October 2026
- W2-1Fluminense24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
- L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
What these results say
- Chapecoense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Chapecoense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Chapecoense had three goals or more.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vasco da Gama scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Vasco da Gama had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Chapecoense | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 70 | -37 | 21 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama
Chapecoense and Vasco da Gama have met 7 times in the records we hold, Vasco da Gama has won 3 of them to Chapecoense's 0, with 4 drawn.
The record
Vasco da Gama won the last one 2–0 on 14 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| Vasco da Gama | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 1.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 14 Nov 2026
Serie AChapecoense 0–2 Vasco da Gama - 5 Feb 2026
Serie AVasco da Gama 1–1 Chapecoense - 31 Jul 2022
Serie BVasco da Gama 0–0 Chapecoense - 23 Apr 2022
Serie BChapecoense 0–0 Vasco da Gama - 8 Dec 2019
Serie AVasco da Gama 1–1 Chapecoense - 14 Sep 2019
Serie AChapecoense 1–2 Vasco da Gama - 26 Aug 2018
Serie AVasco da Gama 3–1 Chapecoense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 41% above Chapecoense's, and Vasco da Gama concede 28% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Vasco da Gama the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 0.66 | 1.69 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.93 | 1.21 |
The result against the call
Vasco da Gama won 2–0 at Chapecoense. The goals: Bruno Duarte 36' for Vasco da Gama, Bruno Duarte 81' for Vasco da Gama. On expected goals it finished 0.49–2.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasco da Gama these chances to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 1.7% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 0.0%.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Chapecoense against 1.76 for Vasco da Gama. Chapecoense's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.21 for Vasco da Gama.
How the model reaches 46% for Vasco da Gama to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vasco da Gama to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Chapecoense's ratings add 8 points and Vasco da Gama's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Chapecoense's ratings36%+8
- Vasco da Gama's ratings46%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.