Dijon
vs
Orleans
Coupe de France prediction & result
Final score: Dijon 1-2 Orleans.
Before kick-off the model made it 70% Dijon, 18% draw, 12% Orleans — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Dijon 2.88, Orleans 0.98.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Coupe de France predictions, then other matches
Model insights: Dijon vs Orleans
Has the model earned this number?
Dijon at 70%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
Form going into Dijon vs Orleans
Dijon
Ligue 2
- W1-0RED Star FC 936 November 2026
- W3-1away to Grenoble30 October 2026
- L1-2Rodez24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Reims16 October 2026
- W4-2Metz12 October 2026
Orleans
Ligue 3
- D2-2away to Valenciennes5 November 2026
- D1-1Villefranche31 October 2026
- L2-3away to Quevilly17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Bastia1 October 2026
- D0-0Cannes26 September 2026
What these results say
- Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dijon had three goals or more.
- Orleans did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Orleans scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orleans conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Dijon vs Orleans
- 15 May 2026Dijon 3–2 OrleansLigue 3
- 8 August 2025Orleans 1–2 DijonLigue 3
- 7 March 2025Dijon 2–2 OrleansLigue 3
- 4 October 2024Orleans 1–1 DijonLigue 3
- 12 April 2024Dijon 1–0 OrleansLigue 3
- 10 November 2023Orleans 1–2 DijonLigue 3
Leading scorers: Dijon and Orleans
Dijon
GoalsAssists
- Júlio Tavares51
- Y. Barka40
Orleans
No player in Ligue 3's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orleans won 2–1 at Dijon. The goals: A. Ribeiro 33' for Orleans, R. Legendre (penalty) 40' for Orleans, Y. Barka 63' for Dijon.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dijon the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Dijon against 0.98 for Orleans. Dijon's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.16 for Orleans.
How the model reaches 70% for Dijon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dijon to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Dijon's ratings add 13 points and Orleans's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 70%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Dijon's ratings59%+13
- Orleans's ratings70%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.