Middlesbrough vs Charlton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 3-0 Charlton.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Middlesbrough, 23% draw, 15% Charlton — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 10A. MorrisM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 12L. AylingD
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 22K. JosephF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 13D. StrelecF
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 2K. RamsayD
- 5L. JonesD
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 17A. BellD
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 34O. SkippM
- 23C. KelmanM
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloF
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 19M. AlliF
- 7T. CampbellF
- 14S. CareyM
- 15N. ChalobahM
- 6C. CoventryM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantF
- 25W. MannionG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 18I. MesíkD
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Charlton
Middlesbrough
Championship
- W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
Charlton
Championship
- L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Middlesbrough
Charlton and Middlesbrough have met 7 times in the records we hold, Middlesbrough has won 5 of them to Charlton's 2.
The record
Middlesbrough won the last one 3–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Middlesbrough | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 3–0 Charlton - 11 Mar 2026
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 0–1 Charlton - 9 Dec 2025
ChampionshipCharlton 1–2 Middlesbrough - 7 Mar 2020
ChampionshipCharlton 0–1 Middlesbrough - 7 Dec 2019
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 1–0 Charlton - 13 Mar 2016
ChampionshipCharlton 2–0 Middlesbrough - 31 Oct 2015
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough 3–0 Charlton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Middlesbrough's attack rates 78% above Charlton's, and Middlesbrough concede 17% fewer than Charlton. That gives Middlesbrough the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| Middlesbrough | 0.89 | 1.14 |
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Charlton
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough beat Charlton 3–0. The model had made a win for Middlesbrough its most likely outcome, at 62%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Sebastian Berhalter 12' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 44' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 82' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 1.69–0.42.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Middlesbrough a 39.7% chance to finish in the top two: 42.2% after a win, 35.7% after a draw, 30.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.2%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
For Charlton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.1% going in: 20.4% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 32.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Middlesbrough v Charlton has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 55% / 26% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 62% / 23% / 15%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Middlesbrough win62%▲ +7
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Charlton win15%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.