31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Norwich vs Watford Championship prediction & result

Carrow Road, Norwich
Referee: Ben Speedie
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Norwich 3-2 Watford.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Norwich, 24% draw, 19% Watford — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norwich97%Draw3%Watford0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Myron Boaduassist: Iker Bravo
27'
⚽Myron Boaduassist: Matthew Pollock
41'
Matthew Pollock
⚽Benjamin Chrisene
53'
61'
🔁Branimir Mlacicout: Marc Bola
⚽Anthony Musabaassist: Mathias Kvistgaarden
62'
Jose Cordoba
63'
⚽Paris Maghomaassist: Mathias Kvistgaarden
71'
🔁Andre Brooksout: J. Makama
72'
🔁Paris Maghomaout: Lucien Mahovo
72'
75'
🔁Jordan Zemuraout: Haktab Omar Traore
75'
🔁Myron Boaduout: Mamadou Doumbia
🔁Mathias Kvistgaardenout: Anis Ben Slimane
81'
🔁Anthony Musabaout: Darlin Yongwa
81'
82'
🔁Martin Payeroout: Rocco Vata
82'
🔁Krépin Diattaout: Othmane Maamma
🔁Jack Staceyout: Kellen Fisher
90'

Match stats — Norwich vs Watford

59%Possession41%
15Shots8
5On target5
9Corners2
1.19xG1

Goals against chances

Norwich3 from 1.19 xGmore than the chances were worth
Watford2 from 1.00 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 33J. CórdobaD
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 49A. MusabaM
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
Substitutes
  • 17A. CrnacF
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 1V. KovačevićG
  • 12L. MahovoD
  • 24J. MakamaF
  • 20A. Ben SlimaneM
  • 22M. TopićM
  • 13D. YongwaD
Coach: P. Clement
Watford 5-3-2
  • 1F. RavagliaG
  • 15K. DiattaD
  • 4K. KebenD
  • 6M. PollockD
  • 29Branimir MlačićD
  • 33J. ZemuraD
  • 39E. KayembeM
  • 5H. KyprianouM
  • 22M. PayeroM
  • 17Iker BravoF
  • 10M. BoaduF
Substitutes
  • 51Travis AkomeahD
  • 26D. BachmannG
  • 16M. BolaD
  • 20M. DoumbiaF
  • 7O. MaammaF
  • 45S. MavididiF
  • 21Amin NabizadaF
  • 23O. TraoréD
  • 11R. VataF
Coach: A. Dionisi

Form going into Norwich vs Watford

Norwich

Championship

  • W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
  • L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026

Watford

Championship

  • L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
  • W2-0Charlton17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Norwich157083224+821
20Watford154381323-1015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Norwich vs Watford

Norwich and Watford have met 7 times in the records we hold, Norwich has won 5 of them to Watford's 2.

The record

Norwich won the last one 3–2 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Norwich5021610
Watford2051016

Between them these 7 meetings produced 26 goals, an average of 3.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Championship    Norwich 3–2 Watford
  • 29 Dec 2025
    Championship    Norwich 0–1 Watford
  • 6 Dec 2025
    Championship    Watford 3–2 Norwich
  • 12 Aug 2025
    League Cup    Watford 1–2 Norwich
  • 1 Feb 2025
    Championship    Watford 0–1 Norwich
  • 21 Sep 2024
    Championship    Norwich 4–1 Watford
  • 13 Feb 2024
    Championship    Norwich 4–2 Watford

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Norwich's attack rates 83% above Watford's, and Norwich concede 6% fewer than Watford. That gives Norwich the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Norwich0.971.35
Watford0.531.43

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Norwich and Watford

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Watford

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Norwich beat Watford 3–2. The model had made a win for Norwich its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Myron Boadu 10' for Watford, Myron Boadu 27' for Watford, Benjamin Chrisene 53' for Norwich, Anthony Musaba 62' for Norwich, Paris Maghoma 71' for Norwich. On expected goals it finished 1.19–1.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Watford a 55.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 45.6% after a win, 54.9% after a draw, 58.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.2%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.