31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Southampton vs QPR Championship prediction & result

St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Referee: Tim Robinson
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Southampton 4-1 QPR.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Southampton, 25% draw, 22% QPR — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Southampton at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Southampton99%Draw1%QPR0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kuryu Matsuki
11'
⚽Cameron Braggassist: Ryan Manning
55'
59'
🔁Kwame Pokuout: Karamoko Dembélé
59'
🔁Harvey Valeout: Koki Saito
⚽Keven Schlotterbeckassist: Ryan Manning
66'
68'
⚽Richard Koneassist: Karamoko Dembélé
72'
Jonathan Varane
🔁James Ward-Prowseout: Flynn Downes
75'
76'
🔁Paul Smythout: Alfie Lloyd
76'
🔁Boy Kemperout: Dennis Cirkin
83'
Kealey Adamson
86'
Jimmy Dunne
🔁Kuryu Matsukiout: Samuel Edozie
86'
🔁Lewis Dobbinout: Divin Mubama
87'
87'
🔁Glen Kamaraout: Ilias Chair
🔁Cameron Braggout: Barnaby Williams
90+2'
🔁Ryan Manningout: Welington
90+2'
⚽Welington
90+5'

Match stats — Southampton vs QPR

54%Possession46%
19Shots12
9On target2
9Corners4
1.25xG0.78

Goals against chances

Southampton4 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth
QPR1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Southampton 4-2-3-1
  • 1Daniel PeretzG
  • 14J. BreeD
  • 5J. StephensD
  • 13K. SchlotterbeckD
  • 3R. ManningD
  • 26Cameron BraggM
  • 30J. Ward-ProwseM
  • 27K. MatsukiM
  • 10F. AzazM
  • 7Léo ScienzaM
  • 11L. DobbinF
Substitutes
  • 4F. DownesM
  • 23S. EdozieM
  • 18T. FellowsM
  • 25G. LongG
  • 28D. MubamaF
  • 34WelingtonD
  • 53Barnaby WilliamsM
  • 15N. Wood-GordonD
  • 6Z. AbbottD
Coach: Tonda Eckert
QPR 4-4-2
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 5R. EdwardsD
  • 12B. KemperD
  • 17K. PokuM
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 11P. SmythF
  • 22R. KoneF
Substitutes
  • 19D. CirkinD
  • 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  • 7K. DembéléM
  • 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
  • 15A. LloydF
  • 14K. SaitoF
  • 13C. WardG
  • 10I. ChairM
  • 23I. AlemayehuM
Coach: Julien Stéphan

Form going into Southampton vs QPR

Southampton

Championship

  • W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
  • D0-0Bolton17 October 2026

QPR

Championship

  • W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Southampton158432915+1424
8QPR156632418+624

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: QPR vs Southampton

QPR and Southampton have met 7 times in the records we hold, Southampton has won 7 of them to QPR's 0.

The record

Southampton won the last one 4–1 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
QPR007417
Southampton700174

Between them these 7 meetings produced 21 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Championship    Southampton 4–1 QPR
  • 24 Feb 2026
    Championship    Southampton 5–0 QPR
  • 5 Nov 2025
    Championship    QPR 1–2 Southampton
  • 23 Dec 2023
    Championship    QPR 0–1 Southampton
  • 26 Aug 2023
    Championship    Southampton 2–1 QPR
  • 7 Feb 2015
    Premier League    QPR 0–1 Southampton
  • 27 Sep 2014
    Premier League    Southampton 2–1 QPR

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Southampton's attack rates 22% above QPR's, and Southampton concede 22% fewer than QPR. That gives Southampton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
QPR0.761.34
Southampton0.931.04

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Southampton and QPR

Southampton

GoalsAssists

  • C. Larin70

QPR

GoalsAssists

  • R. Kone51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Southampton beat QPR 4–1. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kuryu Matsuki 11' for Southampton, Cameron Bragg 55' for Southampton, Keven Schlotterbeck 66' for Southampton, Richard Kone 68' for QPR, Welington 90+5' for Southampton. On expected goals it finished 1.25–0.78.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Southampton a 45.2% chance to finish in the top two: 47.9% after a win, 42.8% after a draw, 38.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.9%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For QPR the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 8.9% going in: 12.4% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.