31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Millwall vs Derby Championship prediction & result

The Den, London
Referee: Anthony Backhouse
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Millwall 4-1 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Millwall, 27% draw, 23% Derby — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Millwall at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Millwall99%Draw1%Derby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kyrell Lisbieassist: Lyndon Dykes
3'
⚽Kyrell Lisbieassist: Caleb Taylor
10'
⚽Luke Cundleassist: Camiel Neghli
17'
Lyndon Dykes
24'
Derek Mazou Sacko
32'
37'
🔁D. Ozohout: Alex Mowatt
45+1'
Rhian Brewster
57'
🔁Henrik Wendel Meisterout: Mohammed Fuseini
🔁Tristan Cramaout: Ryan Leonard
67'
🔁Lyndon Dykesout: Mihailo·Ivanovic
68'
71'
Carlton Morris
🔁Camiel Neghliout: Mark Sykes
74'
🔁Kyrell Lisbieout: Alfie Doughty
74'
78'
🔁Carlton Morrisout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
78'
🔁Sammie Szmodicsout: Filip Bilbija
78'
🔁Rhian Brewsterout: Oscar Fraulo
🔁Zak Sturgeout: Romain Esse
78'
⚽Jake Cooperassist: Mihailo·Ivanovic
84'
87'
⚽Filip Bilbija
Jenson Metcalfe
89'

Match stats — Millwall vs Derby

56%Possession44%
21Shots13
9On target4
4Corners5
4.16xG1.26

Goals against chances

Millwall4 from 4.16 xGabout what the chances were worth
Derby1 from 1.26 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 4T. CramaD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 25L. CundleM
  • 22K. LisbieM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 41G. EvansG
  • 19J. CoburnF
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 45A. DoughtyM
  • 9M. IvanovićF
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 11R. EsseM
  • 18R. LeonardD
Coach: A. Neil
Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
  • 22M. JohnstonD
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 14J. RobinsonD
  • 26R. HedgesD
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 10R. BrewsterM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 19H. MeisterM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 25S. DuffyD
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 16M. FuseiniF
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 13F. BilbijaM
  • 43I. GordonD
Coach: J. Eustace

Form going into Millwall vs Derby

Millwall

Championship

  • L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
  • D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026

Derby

Championship

  • D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
  • L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Millwall155372327-418
23Derby152491430-1610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Millwall

Derby and Millwall have met 7 times in the records we hold, Millwall has won 4 of them to Derby's 0, with 3 drawn.

The record

Millwall won the last one 4–1 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Derby034511
Millwall430115

Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Championship    Millwall 4–1 Derby
  • 10 Mar 2026
    Championship    Millwall 1–0 Derby
  • 10 Dec 2025
    Championship    Derby 1–1 Millwall
  • 22 Feb 2025
    Championship    Derby 0–1 Millwall
  • 19 Oct 2024
    Championship    Millwall 1–1 Derby
  • 23 Feb 2022
    Championship    Derby 1–2 Millwall
  • 6 Nov 2021
    Championship    Millwall 1–1 Derby

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Millwall's attack rates 21% above Derby's, and Millwall concede 12% fewer than Derby. That gives Millwall the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Derby0.631.56
Millwall0.761.37

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

The result against the call

Millwall beat Derby 4–1. The model had made a win for Millwall its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Kyrell Lisbie 3' for Millwall, Kyrell Lisbie 10' for Millwall, Luke Cundle 17' for Millwall, Jake Cooper 84' for Millwall, Filip Bilbija 87' for Derby. On expected goals it finished 4.16–1.26.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 37.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.5% after a win, 35.9% after a draw, 40.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.1%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.