31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Burnley vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result

Turf Moor, Burnley
Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Burnley 0-0 Portsmouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Burnley, 27% draw, 37% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portsmouth at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Burnley4%Draw92%Portsmouth4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Josh Laurent
39'
39'
Jayden Meghoma
45'
🔁Adrian Segecicout: Ebou Adams
50'
🔁Ryan Kavuma-McQueenout: Tyrese Shade
🔁Jamie Vardyout: Jaydon Banel
62'
64'
John Michael Lewis Mousinho
🔁Reo Hatateout: Josh Cullen
71'
🔁Andréas Hountondjiout: Aaron Ramsey
71'
72'
🔁Marko Milovanovićout: Josh Murphy
80'
🔁Jayden Meghomaout: Terry Devlin
80'
🔁Abu Kamaraout: Thomas Waddingham
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: Oliver Sonne
85'

Match stats — Burnley vs Portsmouth

52%Possession48%
18Shots5
4On target0
5Corners2
1.97xG0.31

Goals against chances

Burnley0 from 1.97 xGless than the chances were worth
Portsmouth0 from 0.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Burnley 4-2-3-1
  • 37G. CoudertG
  • 2K. WalkerD
  • 18H. EkdalD
  • 44IgorD
  • 23Lucas PiresD
  • 17A. HountondjiM
  • 5R. HatateM
  • 10M. EdwardsM
  • 29J. LaurentM
  • 19L. RamazaniM
  • 9J. VardyF
Substitutes
  • 15A. AhmedhodžićD
  • 3Max AlleyneD
  • 34J. BanelF
  • 24J. CullenM
  • 8U. RaghouberM
  • 21A. RamseyM
  • 14C. RobertsD
  • 22O. SonneD
  • 1M. WeißG
Coach: F. Celestini
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchmidG
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 55M. DiaD
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 7M. PackM
  • 37I. MohamedM
  • 11A. KamaraM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
  • 29M. MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 20T. WaddinghamF
  • 6C. ShaughnessyD
  • 19R. SheinM
  • 17T. ShadeF
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 24T. DevlinM
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 38E. AdamsM
Coach: John Mousinho

Form going into Burnley vs Portsmouth

Burnley

Championship

  • L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
  • L1-2Wolves16 October 2026

Portsmouth

Championship

  • W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Burnley151772231-910
11Portsmouth156452018+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burnley vs Portsmouth

  • 1 February 2025Portsmouth 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
  • 21 September 2024Burnley 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 31 March 2012Portsmouth 1–5 BurnleyChampionship
  • 10 December 2011Burnley 0–1 PortsmouthChampionship

The full Burnley vs Portsmouth record →

The result against the call

Burnley and Portsmouth drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Portsmouth at 37% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.97–0.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burnley a 42.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 35.4% after a win, 44.8% after a draw, 46.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.8%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Burnley v Portsmouth has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Burnley's chance of winning, down 17 points.

  1. Burnley win36%▼ −17
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Portsmouth win37%▲ +16

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.