31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Lincoln vs Birmingham Championship prediction & result

LNER stadium, Lincoln
Referee: Lewis Smith
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Lincoln, 29% draw, 39% Birmingham — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lincoln0%Draw1%Birmingham99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽August Priske
Mikkel Ladefoged
25'
27'
Liam Millar
32'
Ethan Laird
Tom William Shaw
35'
Dom Jefferies
42'
45'
🔁James Beadleout: Ryan Allsop
🔁Dom Jefferiesout: F. Draper
59'
🔁Ivan Varfolomeevout: Tom Bayliss
59'
60'
⚽August Priskeassist: Christoph·Klarer
⚽Tom Baylissassist: Mikkel Ladefoged
63'
66'
🔁August Priskeout: Max Bird
73'
⚽Alex Cochraneassist: Ryan Allsop
🔁Reeco Hackett-Fairchildout: Robert Nicholas Street
74'
🔁Ben Houseout: Chiedozie Ogbene
74'
75'
🔁Patrick Robertsout: Demarai Gray
75'
🔁Ethan Lairdout: Bright Osayi-Samuel
🔁Mikkel Ladefogedout: Isaac Olaofe
84'
88'
🔁Jay Stansfieldout: Marvin Ducksch
Yunus Konak
89'

Match stats — Lincoln vs Birmingham

54%Possession46%
12Shots17
6On target7
3Corners3
1.63xG2.09

Goals against chances

Lincoln1 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Birmingham3 from 2.09 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lincoln 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. WickensG
  • 4A. CoubișD
  • 25D. ElereweD
  • 15S. BradleyD
  • 3A. ReachD
  • 26Y. KonakM
  • 24I. VarfolomeevM
  • 7R. HackettM
  • 16D. JefferiesM
  • 18B. HouseM
  • 11M. LadefogedF
Substitutes
  • 6R. TowlerD
  • 46J. GauciG
  • 34F. DraperF
  • 8T. BaylissM
  • 27C. OgbeneF
  • 19I. OlaofeF
  • 33D. OyegokeD
  • 20C. ElderD
  • 17R. StreetF
Coach: Chris Cohen
Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BeadleG
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 16P. RobertsM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 9A. PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 18M. BirdM
  • 3L. BuchananD
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
  • 10D. GrayF
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 7Carlos VicenteF
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 32L. VázquezF
Coach: C. Davies

Form going into Lincoln vs Birmingham

Lincoln

Championship

  • W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026

Birmingham

Championship

  • L0-1away to Cardiff24 October 2026
  • W3-0QPR17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21Lincoln154381526-1115
1Birmingham158522814+1429

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Birmingham

  • 8 March 2025Birmingham 1–0 LincolnLeague One
  • 11 January 2025Birmingham 2–1 LincolnFA Cup
  • 19 October 2024Lincoln 1–3 BirminghamLeague One

Leading scorers: Lincoln and Birmingham

Lincoln

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham won 3–1 at Lincoln. The model had made a win for Birmingham its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: August Priske 16' for Birmingham, August Priske 60' for Birmingham, Tom Bayliss 63' for Lincoln, Alex Cochrane 73' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.63–2.09.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Birmingham a 14.0% chance to finish in the top two: 16.9% after a win, 11.7% after a draw, 11.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.9%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lincoln v Birmingham has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 28% / 30% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Lincoln's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lincoln win32%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Birmingham win39%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.