31 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Stoke City vs Preston Championship prediction & result

Stoke on Trent
Referee: Adam Herczeg
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Stoke City 2-0 Preston.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Stoke City, 26% draw, 21% Preston — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Stoke City at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stoke City99%Draw1%Preston0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Brad Potts
⚽Ben Wilmotassist: Jack Mcglynn
29'
Luca Bombino
43'
45'
🔁Brad Pottsout: Thierry Small
⚽Jack Mcglynnassist: Ethan Galbraith
53'
63'
🔁Delano Burgzorgout: Andrew Moran
63'
🔁Callum Langout: Jusef Erabi
🔁Luca Bombinoout: Junior Tchamadeu
73'
🔁Róbert Boženíkout: George Hirst
73'
Ethan Galbraith
76'
🔁Justin Devennyout: Million·Manhoef
81'
🔁El Hadji Soumareout: Svante Ingelsson
81'
🔁Bosun Lawalout: Maksym Taloverov
86'
86'
🔁Johnny Kennyout: Stanley Mills
90'
Jusef Erabi

Match stats — Stoke City vs Preston

60%Possession40%
18Shots3
6On target0
9Corners7
2.22xG0.16

Goals against chances

Stoke City2 from 2.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
Preston0 from 0.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Stoke City 3-4-3
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 21L. BombinoM
  • 7J. McGlynnF
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 13J. DevennyF
Substitutes
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 6S. IngelssonM
  • 42M. ManhoefF
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 19T. RigoM
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 22J. TchamadeuD
Coach: M. Robins
Preston 3-4-3
  • 1D. IversenG
  • 24O. OffiahD
  • 14J. StoreyD
  • 16A. HughesD
  • 44B. PottsM
  • 27L. LeroyM
  • 15J. ThompsonM
  • 3A. VukčevićM
  • 10C. LangF
  • 38J. KennyF
  • 37D. BurgzorgF
Substitutes
  • 7A. DevineM
  • 9J. ErabiF
  • 6L. LindsayD
  • 17S. MillsM
  • 23A. MoranM
  • 21L. NichollsG
  • 11T. SmallD
  • 12C. WileyD
  • 32Ed NolanD
Coach: G. Alexander

Form going into Stoke City vs Preston

Stoke City

Championship

  • D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026

Preston

Championship

  • D1-1West Brom24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Stoke City159242418+629
24Preston1522111330-178

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Preston vs Stoke City

Preston and Stoke City have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.

The record

Stoke City won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Preston23276
Stoke City23267

Between them these 7 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 1.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Championship    Stoke City 2–0 Preston
  • 20 Mar 2026
    Championship    Preston 3–1 Stoke City
  • 26 Dec 2025
    Championship    Stoke City 0–0 Preston
  • 5 Apr 2025
    Championship    Preston 1–1 Stoke City
  • 26 Nov 2024
    Championship    Stoke City 0–0 Preston
  • 9 Mar 2024
    Championship    Preston 1–2 Stoke City
  • 2 Sep 2023
    Championship    Stoke City 0–2 Preston

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Stoke City's attack rates 26% above Preston's, and Stoke City concede 26% fewer than Preston. That gives Stoke City the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Preston0.571.68
Stoke City0.721.24

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Preston

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Preston

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stoke City beat Preston 2–0. The model had made a win for Stoke City its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ben Wilmot 29' for Stoke City, Jack Mcglynn 53' for Stoke City. On expected goals it finished 2.22–0.16.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Preston a 84.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 79.1% after a win, 84.1% after a draw, 86.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.4%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.