Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Ajax, 25% draw, 25% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Ajax at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30A. BouwmanD
- 15Y. BaasD
- 5O. WijndalD
- 24J. MokioM
- 4S. AmrabatM
- 8J. BrandtM
- 18D. KlaassenF
- 99T. ArokodareF
- 68A. OuazaneF
- 23S. BerghuisF
- 6T. KehrerD
- 67Mohamed AbdallaM
- 28Y. BissoumaM
- 17D. BlindD
- 43Rayane BounidaF
- 10O. GloukhM
- 36D. JanseD
- 26M. PaesG
- 28J. De BusserG
- 22E. DijkstraD
- 3W. GoesD
- 4L. SchoutenD
- 34M. de WitD
- 6P. KoopmeinersM
- 21D. KwakmanM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 17V. ByskovM
- 11R. DaalM
- 9M. MeerdinkF
- 54Jerolldino BergraafF
- 27Wassim bouzianeF
- 5M. ChávezD
- 8J. ClasieM
- 29W. HoedtD
- 30D. KasiusD
- 18B. KovacsF
- 2S. MaikumaD
- 20A. NataliD
Form going into Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
Eredivisie
- W2-1away to Sparta Rotterdam25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Groningen18 October 2026
- D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie
- L0-2Twente25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Cambuur18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Feyenoord10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 15 | +17 | 25 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
Ajax and AZ Alkmaar have met 7 times in the records we hold, AZ Alkmaar has won 4 of them to Ajax's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Ajax won the last one 1–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
EredivisieAjax 1–0 AZ Alkmaar - 8 Feb 2026
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax - 14 Jan 2026
KNVB BekerAZ Alkmaar 6–0 Ajax - 18 Oct 2025
EredivisieAjax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar - 16 Mar 2025
EredivisieAjax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar - 14 Jan 2025
KNVB BekerAZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax - 8 Dec 2024
EredivisieAZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Ajax's attack rates 16% above AZ Alkmaar's, and Ajax concede 13% fewer than AZ Alkmaar. That gives Ajax the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1.09 | 0.79 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 0.94 | 0.91 |
Leading scorers: Ajax and AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- T. Arokodare71
- J. Brandt62
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ajax beat AZ Alkmaar 1–0. The model had made a win for Ajax its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Tolu Arokodare 9' for Ajax. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.27.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ajax a 73.3% chance to finish in the top four: 79.6% after a win, 68.6% after a draw, 65.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.6%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.
For AZ Alkmaar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 44.3% going in: 54.2% after a win, 45.3% after a draw, 38.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.5%, 5.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Ajax v AZ Alkmaar has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Ajax's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Ajax win50%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- AZ Alkmaar win25%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.