PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 7-0 Willem II.
Before kick-off the model made it 91% PSV Eindhoven, 6% draw, 3% Willem II — fair odds of 1.10, 16.67 and 33.33.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
PSV Eindhoven at 91%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32M. KovářG
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 8S. DestM
- 24K. SanoM
- 17Mauro JúniorM
- 20G. TilM
- 7R. van BommelM
- 5I. PerišićF
- 21S. MijnansM
- 25K. SildilliaD
- 35A. SantosM
- 9R. PepiF
- 1N. OlijG
- 27D. ManF
- 18F. KostićM
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 31N. FernandezM
- 42S. CornecionM
- 26M. DelangheG
- 3F. StamD
- 83M. LemmensD
- 23M. DekkerD
- 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
- 5H. ter AvestM
- 6C. TwigtM
- 18Anass ZarroukM
- 32V. van CrooijM
- 19Uriel van AalstM
- 9D. HaenF
- 2A. CiranniD
- 52T. VilhenaM
- 11A. CulumF
- 31K. de LeeuwG
- 15A. Et-TaïbiD
- 50E. GürbüzF
- 17O. MartinF
- 10J. SchuurmanM
- 21W. van der SteenG
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie
- D1-1Feyenoord25 October 2026
- L1-2away to ADO Den Haag17 October 2026
- W2-0Heerenveen9 October 2026
Willem II
Eredivisie
- L1-6Cambuur24 October 2026
- L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 15 | +25 | 26 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II have met 7 times in the records we hold, PSV Eindhoven has won 5 of them to Willem II's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
PSV Eindhoven won the last one 7–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5 |
| Willem II | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 25 goals, an average of 3.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 7–0 Willem II - 8 Feb 2025
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 1–1 Willem II - 28 Sep 2024
EredivisieWillem II 0–2 PSV Eindhoven - 1 May 2022
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 4–2 Willem II - 25 Sep 2021
EredivisieWillem II 2–1 PSV Eindhoven - 9 May 2021
EredivisieWillem II 0–2 PSV Eindhoven - 8 Nov 2020
EredivisiePSV Eindhoven 3–0 Willem II
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, PSV Eindhoven's attack rates 179% above Willem II's, and PSV Eindhoven concede 55% fewer than Willem II. That gives PSV Eindhoven the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.48 | 0.86 |
| Willem II | 0.53 | 1.91 |
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Willem II
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- S. Mijnans92
- G. Til71
Willem II
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven beat Willem II 7–0. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 91%, so the call held; the score it named was 4–0. The goals: Mauro Júnior 20' for PSV Eindhoven, Guus Til 44' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 50' for PSV Eindhoven, Ruben van Bommel 53' for PSV Eindhoven, Ricardo Pepi 73' for PSV Eindhoven, Kodai Sano 77' for PSV Eindhoven, Shuryjano Cornecion 81' for PSV Eindhoven. On expected goals it finished 2.65–1.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave PSV Eindhoven a 32.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 33.3% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.3%, 0.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on PSV Eindhoven v Willem II has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 89% / 7% / 4% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 91% / 6% / 3%: the biggest move is PSV Eindhoven's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- PSV Eindhoven win91%▲ +2
- Draw6%▼ −1
- Willem II win3%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.