31 October 2026, 17:45 UTC

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Heerenveen 1-0 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Heerenveen, 26% draw, 29% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Heerenveen at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen96%Draw4%NEC Nijmegen0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
Clement Bischoff
Oliver Johansen Braude
32'
34'
Bryan Linssen
Vasilios Zagaritis
43'
marcus linday
61'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Ringo Meerveld
62'
⚽Dylan Venteassist: Levi Smans
66'
73'
🔁Clement Bischoffout: Ayodele Thomas
73'
🔁Perr Schuursout: Kaj Sierhuis
🔁Nolhan courtensout: Dirk Proper
78'
🔁Levi Smansout: Luca Oyen
78'
79'
🔁Tobias Stormout: Gabriel·Bras
85'
Ayodele Thomas
85'
🔁Kevin Kersout: Adam Tahaui
86'
🔁Jamiro Monteiroout: Willum Thor Willumsson
🔁Jacob Trenskowout: Marko Farji
90+2'

Match stats — Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

38%Possession62%
8Shots21
2On target2
5Corners7
1.46xG1.33

Goals against chances

Heerenveen1 from 1.46 xGabout what the chances were worth
NEC Nijmegen0 from 1.33 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 16M. LindayM
  • 8N. CourtensM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 6D. ProperM
  • 17R. UldriķisF
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 15M. EgbringD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 2M. HilgersD
Coach: R. Veldeman
NEC Nijmegen 3-1-4-2
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 21T. StormD
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 22A. KaplanD
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 34Kevin KersM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryF
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 36Freek EntiusG
  • 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 19Adam TahauiF
  • 77A. ThomasF
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Heerenveen

Eredivisie

  • W3-2away to ADO Den Haag24 October 2026
  • W4-0Excelsior16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to PSV Eindhoven9 October 2026

NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie

  • D2-2Groningen25 October 2026
  • D2-2Fortuna Sittard18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Ajax10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Heerenveen126332416+821
11NEC Nijmegen123542021-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen have met 7 times in the records we hold, Heerenveen has won 3 of them to NEC Nijmegen's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

Heerenveen won the last one 1–0 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Heerenveen322810
NEC Nijmegen223108

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Eredivisie    Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen
  • 22 Mar 2026
    Eredivisie    NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Heerenveen
  • 21 Sep 2025
    Eredivisie    Heerenveen 3–2 NEC Nijmegen
  • 27 Apr 2025
    Eredivisie    Heerenveen 1–0 NEC Nijmegen
  • 19 Oct 2024
    Eredivisie    NEC Nijmegen 3–0 Heerenveen
  • 10 Mar 2024
    Eredivisie    NEC Nijmegen 2–0 Heerenveen
  • 7 Oct 2023
    Eredivisie    Heerenveen 1–1 NEC Nijmegen

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Heerenveen's attack rates 10% above NEC Nijmegen's, and Heerenveen concede 11% fewer than NEC Nijmegen. That gives Heerenveen the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Heerenveen0.920.98
NEC Nijmegen0.841.10

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen

Heerenveen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Trenskow63
  • R. Meerveld51

NEC Nijmegen

No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1–0. The model had made a win for Heerenveen its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dylan Vente 66' for Heerenveen. On expected goals it finished 1.46–1.33.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Heerenveen a 8.6% chance to finish in the top four: 10.7% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 6.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For NEC Nijmegen the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.9% going in: 2.8% after a win, 5.4% after a draw, 7.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.