Swansea vs Blackburn Championship prediction & result
Final score: Swansea 4-0 Blackburn.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Swansea, 30% draw, 28% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Swansea at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swansea vs Blackburn
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 4J. FultonM
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 30Joseph OkopuM
- 7M. WidellM
- 10Eom Ji-SungM
- 31R. StewartF
- 1A. FisherG
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 33A. IdahF
- 8E. JustF
- 2J. KeyD
- 12J. MongaF
- 18Tiago ParenteD
- 3J. SeeltD
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 22B. TóthG
- 2R. AlebiosuD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 3H. PickeringD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 11J. FevrierM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 21O. AfolayanM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 1A. PearsG
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 7A. KargboF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 23Y. OhashiF
- 14D. De NeveM
- 17H. CarterD
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 48I. DunnM
Form going into Swansea vs Blackburn
Swansea
Championship
- L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
Blackburn
Championship
- W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Swansea
Blackburn and Swansea have met 7 times in the records we hold, Swansea has won 6 of them to Blackburn's 1.
The record
Swansea won the last one 4–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
| Swansea | 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
ChampionshipSwansea 4–0 Blackburn - 20 Jan 2026
ChampionshipSwansea 3–1 Blackburn - 30 Sep 2025
ChampionshipBlackburn 1–2 Swansea - 22 Feb 2025
ChampionshipSwansea 3–0 Blackburn - 19 Oct 2024
ChampionshipBlackburn 1–0 Swansea - 2 Mar 2024
ChampionshipSwansea 2–1 Blackburn - 28 Oct 2023
ChampionshipBlackburn 0–1 Swansea
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Swansea's attack rates 12% above Blackburn's, and Swansea concede 8% fewer than Blackburn. That gives Swansea the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Swansea and Blackburn
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Swansea beat Blackburn 4–0. The model had made a win for Swansea its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Stephen Eustáquio 11' for Swansea, Joseph Amankwaah Opoku 32' for Swansea, Filip Lissah 36' for Swansea, Ross Stewart 59' for Swansea. On expected goals it finished 2.37–0.38.
How the call on Swansea v Blackburn has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 47% / 30% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 30% / 28%: the biggest move is Swansea's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Swansea win42%▼ −5
- Draw30%=
- Blackburn win28%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.