31 October 2026, 00:15 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Referee: Andres Merlos
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Rosario Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Sarmiento Junin, 28% draw, 42% Rosario Central — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Rosario Central at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin2%Draw92%Rosario Central6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Manuel Garcíaassist: Julian Mavilla
5'
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
11'
Elián Giménez
13'
29'
⚽Gaston Avilaassist: Enzo Copetti
31'
Álan Rodríguez
Julian Mavilla
43'
🔁Cristian Exequiel Zabalaout: Mauricio Martínez
44'
Thiago Santamaría
51'
🔁Thiago Santamaríaout: Santiago Salle
55'
🔁Julian Mavillaout: Renzo Orihuela
55'
57'
🔁Franco Cerviout: Juan Giménez
59'
🔁Ángel Di Maríaout: Julian Fernandez
65'
Emanuel Coronel
Renzo Orihuela
67'
75'
🔁Álan Rodríguezout: Marco Ruben
76'
🔁Emanuel Coronelout: Elías Enzo Verón
🔁Junior Marabelout: Jonathan Herrera
82'
🔁Manuel Garcíaout: Gastón Alberto Arturia
82'
•Santiago Salle
88'
Santiago Salle
90'
90+5'
⚽Gaston Avilaassist: Ignacio Ovando

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central

35%Possession65%
7Shots17
2On target6
2Corners13
0.88xG1.56

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Rosario Central2 from 1.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 3-4-2-1
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 29T. SantamaríaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuárezD
  • 20U. GiménezM
  • 5M. GarcíaM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 11G. GonzálezM
  • 23E. GiménezM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 27J. MarabelF
Substitutes
  • 35F. AlaggiaM
  • 1I. ArboledaG
  • 24J. HerreraF
  • 7P. MagnínF
  • 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 77N. PasquiniD
  • 8S. SalleF
  • 26Y. ArismendiM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
  • 23J. LedesmaG
  • 32E. CoronelD
  • 46Ignacio OvandoD
  • 13G. ÁvilaD
  • 3A. SandezD
  • 88A. RodríguezM
  • 20V. PizarroM
  • 11Á. Di MaríaM
  • 10F. CerviM
  • 8J. CampazM
  • 22E. CopettiF
Substitutes
  • 35L. RamosD
  • 15F. MalloD
  • 9M. RubenF
  • 33A. SotoD
  • 42E. VeronD
  • 1A. WernerG
  • 2S. ZarachoD
  • 19L. SegoviaM
  • 24Juan Valentín GiménezD
Coach: J. Almirón

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Rosario Central

Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-2away to Gimnasia La Plata23 October 2026
  • D1-1Barracas Central19 October 2026
  • D1-1River Plate14 October 2026

Rosario Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0Huracan25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Atletico Tucuman17 October 2026
  • W5-0Independiente Rivadavia11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121
1Rosario Central1610422612+1434

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosario Central vs Sarmiento Junin

Rosario Central and Sarmiento Junin have met 7 times in the records we hold, Rosario Central has won 6 of them to Sarmiento Junin's 1.

The record

Rosario Central won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Rosario Central601128
Sarmiento Junin106812

Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 31 Oct 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Sarmiento Junin 1–2 Rosario Central
  • 19 Apr 2026
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Rosario Central 2–1 Sarmiento Junin
  • 24 Oct 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Sarmiento Junin 0–1 Rosario Central
  • 23 Feb 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Rosario Central 1–0 Sarmiento Junin
  • 20 Jul 2024
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Rosario Central 4–2 Sarmiento Junin
  • 3 Mar 2023
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Rosario Central
  • 8 Jul 2022
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Rosario Central 1–0 Sarmiento Junin

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Rosario Central's attack rates 23% above Sarmiento Junin's, and Rosario Central concede 32% fewer than Sarmiento Junin. That gives Rosario Central the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Rosario Central1.021.00
Sarmiento Junin0.831.48

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Rosario Central

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Rosario Central

GoalsAssists

  • Á. Di María115
  • G. Ávila73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosario Central won 2–1 at Sarmiento Junin. The model had made a win for Rosario Central its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Manuel García 5' for Sarmiento Junin, Gaston Avila 29' for Rosario Central, Gaston Avila 90+5' for Rosario Central. Sent off: Renzo Orihuela (Sarmiento Junin) 67', Santiago Salle (Sarmiento Junin) 90'. On expected goals it finished 0.88–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarmiento Junin a 86.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 93.7% after a draw, 74.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.7%, 12.2 points lower than before the match.

For Rosario Central the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 69.0% going in: 92.2% after a win, 63.5% after a draw, 40.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.2%, 23.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sarmiento Junin v Rosario Central has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 28% / 42%: the biggest move is Rosario Central's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sarmiento Junin win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Rosario Central win42%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.