Regular Season - 15 · 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool League One prediction & result

Plough Lane, Wimbledon
Full time1 – 0

Final score: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Blackpool.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% AFC Wimbledon, 30% draw, 37% Blackpool — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: AFC Wimbledon 1.11, Blackpool 1.19.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

47%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-1 11%0-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

Blackpool at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AFC Wimbledon96%Draw4%Blackpool0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alistair Smithassist: James Tilley
13'
45'
🔁Tom Bloxhamout: Dion Charles
45'
🔁Leighton Clarksonout: Jerry Yates
🔁Harry Cornickout: Steven Sessegnon
66'
68'
🔁Jordan Brownout: CJ Hamilton
James Tilley
72'
🔁Ollie Harrisonout: Zack Nelson
76'
🔁Callum Maycockout: Myles Hippolyte
76'
77'
🔁Dale Taylorout: Niall Ennis
83'
Albie Morgan
Alistair Smith
87'
90+3'
Jerry Yates
Jayden Stockley
90+4'
90+5'
Zachary Ashworth
Jayden Stockley
90+5'

Match stats — AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

37%Possession63%
9Shots15
2On target5
3Corners7
0.6xG1.24

Goals against chances

AFC Wimbledon1 from 0.60 xGabout what the chances were worth
Blackpool0 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AFC Wimbledon 5-3-2
  • 1N. BishopG
  • 7J. TilleyD
  • 17A. YiadomD
  • 33I. OgundereD
  • 3S. SeddonD
  • 29A. SasuD
  • 12A. SmithM
  • 5O. HarrisonM
  • 8C. MaycockM
  • 23H. CornickF
  • 9J. StockleyF
Substitutes
  • 15F. SimmondsD
  • 34H. HedgesM
  • 21M. HippolyteM
  • 22R. HoranD
  • 10Z. NelsonM
  • 2S. SessegnonD
  • 25S. GomaD
Coach: J. Jackson
Blackpool 4-1-3-2
  • 23L. SouthwoodG
  • 28J. WilliamsD
  • 4O. CaseyD
  • 3Z. AshworthD
  • 15H. CoulsonD
  • 6J. BrownM
  • 21I. NiskanenM
  • 8A. MorganM
  • 7L. ClarksonM
  • 18D. TaylorF
  • 14T. BloxhamF
Substitutes
  • 19D. CharlesF
  • 9N. EnnisF
  • 22C. HamiltonF
  • 2A. LyonsD
  • 12J. YatesF
  • 30Oluchukwu NwankwoD
  • 43C. BrierG
Coach: I. Evatt

Form going into AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

AFC Wimbledon

League One

  • L1-2away to Stockport County31 October 2026
  • D1-1Wycombe24 October 2026
  • L0-3Mansfield Town20 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026

Blackpool

League One

  • D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday1 November 2026
  • L1-4Mansfield Town24 October 2026
  • W2-0Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Leyton Orient17 October 2026

What these results say

  • AFC Wimbledon did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • AFC Wimbledon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AFC Wimbledon had three goals or more.
  • Blackpool failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Blackpool scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Blackpool conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17AFC Wimbledon144461021-1116
20Blackpool133371722-512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

  • 11 March 2026AFC Wimbledon 4–1 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 4 October 2025Blackpool 0–2 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 6 March 2021Blackpool 1–1 AFC WimbledonLeague One
  • 27 October 2020AFC Wimbledon 1–0 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 22 February 2020AFC Wimbledon 0–0 BlackpoolLeague One
  • 16 November 2019Blackpool 2–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One

Leading scorers: AFC Wimbledon and Blackpool

AFC Wimbledon

GoalsAssists

  • J. Stockley61

Blackpool

No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AFC Wimbledon (17th, with Blackpool 20th), while our numbers lean to Blackpool. Blackpool rate 0.49 in attack and 1.91 in defence, AFC Wimbledon 0.38 and 1.97 (lower is better in defence), so Blackpool have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AFC Wimbledon a 63.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 56.8% after a win, 64.7% after a draw, 68.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.8%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.

For Blackpool the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 23.5% going in: 19.2% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 26.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.9%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

AFC Wimbledon Blackpool
0.38 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.49
1.97 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.91
1.11 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Blackpool the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon against 1.19 for Blackpool. AFC Wimbledon's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.91 for Blackpool.

AFC Wimbledon carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.17 for Blackpool. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Blackpool to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackpool to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, AFC Wimbledon's ratings add 3 points and Blackpool's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Both sides at this match's level30%−1
  4. AFC Wimbledon's ratings33%+3
  5. Blackpool's ratings37%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.