Swindon Town
vs
Grimsby
League Two prediction & result
Final score: Swindon Town 1-4 Grimsby.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Swindon Town, 26% draw, 44% Grimsby — fair odds of 3.33, 3.85 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.30, Grimsby 1.68.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League Two predictions
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Has the model earned this number?
Grimsby at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. RipleyG
- 6J. BallD
- 21K. MajekodunmiD
- 26D. ButlerD
- 2M. ClarkM
- 27A. MundaM
- 25J. ThomsonM
- 33Joel McGregorM
- 24M. Virtue-ThickM
- 19J. SnowdonM
- 23A. DrinanF
- 12Lewis Moore WardG
- 18J. DebayoD
- 29A. HackfordF
- 43Freddie HoareM
- 39L. MillardF
- 34B. KirkmanD
- 28O. PalmerF
- 31C. PymG
- 12J. FoulkesD
- 5H. RodgersD
- 17C. McJannetD
- 3J. SweeneyD
- 7J. WalkerM
- 8Cian DoyleM
- 10S. FinchM
- 29M. SheltonM
- 9Iwan MorganM
- 39A. CookF
- 1H. CartwrightG
- 23H. BrownM
- 19J. AndrewsF
- 28F. CartwrightM
- 14J. AmaluzorF
- 11Ryley ReynoldsM
- 30C. VernamF
Form going into Swindon Town vs Grimsby
Swindon Town
League Two
- W2-1Rotherham31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall17 October 2026
Grimsby
League Two
- W5-2York31 October 2026
- W4-1away to Gillingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rochdale20 October 2026
- L0-2Northampton17 October 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Swindon Town scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Grimsby conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Grimsby scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Grimsby had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Swindon Town | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 19 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Grimsby
- 25 April 2026Grimsby 4–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 22 November 2025Swindon Town 2–2 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 18 April 2025Grimsby 0–4 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 21 December 2024Swindon Town 3–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 20 April 2024Grimsby 2–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 30 September 2023Swindon Town 2–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Grimsby
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan91
Grimsby
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.2% chance of the title and Grimsby 12.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swindon Town a 4.7% chance to finish in the top three: 6.8% after a win, 3.8% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.7%, 2 points lower than before the match.
For Grimsby the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 26.5% going in: 30.4% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.4%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League Two season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.68 for Grimsby. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.96 for Grimsby.
How the model reaches 44% for Grimsby to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Grimsby to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Swindon Town's ratings add 6 points and Grimsby's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Swindon Town's ratings37%+6
- Grimsby's ratings44%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.