Sunderland vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sunderland, 31% draw, 36% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Arsenal
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 5D. BallardD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 11C. RiggM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 15O. AldereteD
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 32T. HumeD
- 18W. IsidorF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 12J. TimberD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 13KepaG
Form going into Sunderland vs Arsenal
Sunderland
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Arsenal
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won every one of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Arsenal
- 7 February 2026Arsenal 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 8 November 2025Sunderland 2–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 21 December 2021Arsenal 5–1 SunderlandLeague Cup
- 16 May 2017Arsenal 2–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 29 October 2016Sunderland 1–4 ArsenalPremier League
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Arsenal
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal won 2–0 at Sunderland. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bruno Guimarães 58' for Arsenal, Bukayo Saka (penalty) 90+7' for Arsenal. Sent off: Reinildo Isnard Mandava (Sunderland) 90+6'.
How the call on Sunderland v Arsenal has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Sunderland's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sunderland win33%▲ +3
- Draw31%=
- Arsenal win36%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.