FC Eindhoven
vs
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC Eindhoven 0–1 Waalwijk
The model makes it 33% FC Eindhoven, 28% draw, 39% Waalwijk — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Eindhoven 1.27, Waalwijk 1.43.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Waalwijk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Eindhoven's rating is built from 53 Eerste Divisie matches and Waalwijk's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- FC Eindhoven are 17th on 14 points from 15 games; Waalwijk are 9th on 20 points from 15 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Eindhoven have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to VVV Venlo.
- Waalwijk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Den Bosch.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Waalwijk 2–1 FC Eindhoven.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk
Has the model earned this number?
Waalwijk at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk
FC Eindhoven
Eerste Divisie
- W2-1away to VVV Venlo14 November 2026
- L0-3Jong Ajax6 November 2026
- L2-3away to Helmond Sport30 October 2026
- L1-2Jong PSV U2123 October 2026
- L0-1Vitesse16 October 2026
Waalwijk
Eerste Divisie
- W4-0Den Bosch14 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC OSS6 November 2026
- L1-2Almere City FC30 October 2026
- D1-1away to De Graafschap23 October 2026
- D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Eindhoven failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Eindhoven had three goals or more.
- Waalwijk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waalwijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | FC Eindhoven | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 14 |
| 9 | Waalwijk | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 27 | 20 | +7 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Eindhoven
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
Waalwijk
Chance to finish in the top eight · 60% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk
- 27 February 2026Waalwijk 2–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 22 August 2025FC Eindhoven 1–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 3 May 2019Waalwijk 3–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
- 14 December 2018FC Eindhoven 1–3 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 2 February 2018FC Eindhoven 3–1 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
- 15 September 2017Waalwijk 0–1 FC EindhovenEerste Divisie
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Eindhoven a 0% chance of the title and Waalwijk 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waalwijk the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FC Eindhoven against 1.43 for Waalwijk. FC Eindhoven's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.47 for Waalwijk.
How the model reaches 39% for Waalwijk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Waalwijk to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, FC Eindhoven's ratings add 5 points and Waalwijk's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- FC Eindhoven's ratings34%+5
- Waalwijk's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Eindhoven at home · Waalwijk away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Eindhoven 15, Waalwijk 15.
FC Eindhoven score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Waalwijk have let in 2 there.
Waalwijk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); FC Eindhoven have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Eindhoven
- at FC Volendam29 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
- vs Roda6 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- at FC OSS11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at Jong PSV U2121 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
- vs Jong AZ8 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
Waalwijk
- at VVV Venlo27 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 30%
- vs Jong AZ4 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
- at Jong Utrecht11 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 40%
- vs Jong Ajax18 Dec · Eerste Divisiewin 55%
- at Emmen9 Jan · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.