Sheffield Wednesday
vs
Plymouth
League One prediction & result
Final score: Sheffield Wednesday 3-0 Plymouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Sheffield Wednesday, 26% draw, 25% Plymouth — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sheffield Wednesday 1.80, Plymouth 1.15.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More League One predictions
Model insights: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Wednesday at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. LumleyG
- 7Y. ValeryD
- 5D. BernardD
- 6L. CooperD
- 26S. SwinkelsD
- 18Jaden HeskeyM
- 16B. MitchellM
- 8C. SlatteryM
- 10B. BannanM
- 9J. LoweM
- 50D. Keillor-DunnF
- 30Ernie WeaverD
- 11L. BarryF
- 24H. GrayF
- 2L. PalmerD
- 4RicardoD
- 37Jarvis ThorntonM
- 27C. TruemanG
- 1M. MahoneyG
- 45W. HardingD
- 2M. RossD
- 22A. HartridgeD
- 11R. CurtisM
- 6M. BoatengM
- 7H. WhiteM
- 3Jack MackenzieM
- 10X. AmaechiM
- 23B. IbrahimM
- 9W. EvansF
- 38Seb CampbellM
- 14O. IrowF
- 18Owen OseniF
- 21James StorerG
- 17C. WattsM
- 40J. MwaroD
- 46Frankie MaundF
Form going into Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
Sheffield Wednesday
League One
- D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
- D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026
Plymouth
League One
- D0-0Reading31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
- L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Wednesday did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Sheffield Wednesday conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.
- Plymouth failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plymouth failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plymouth conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sheffield Wednesday | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 23 |
| 6 | Plymouth | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth
- 8 March 2025Plymouth 0–3 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
- 11 August 2024Sheffield Wednesday 4–0 PlymouthChampionship
- 5 March 2024Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 PlymouthChampionship
- 25 October 2023Plymouth 3–0 Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
- 4 February 2023Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 PlymouthLeague One
- 4 October 2022Plymouth 2–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
Leading scorers: Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth
Sheffield Wednesday
GoalsAssists
- J. Lowe52
Plymouth
GoalsAssists
- A. Pepple50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Wednesday a 5.1% chance of the title and Plymouth 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sheffield Wednesday a 7.3% chance to finish in the top two: 8.5% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.5%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
For Plymouth the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 10.8% going in: 13.4% after a win, 10.0% after a draw, 9.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.0%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Wednesday the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday against 1.15 for Plymouth. Sheffield Wednesday's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.83 for Plymouth.
How the model reaches 49% for Sheffield Wednesday to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Wednesday to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Sheffield Wednesday's ratings add 3 points and Plymouth's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Sheffield Wednesday's ratings45%+3
- Plymouth's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.