CRB
vs
Ceara
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: CRB 1-1 Ceara.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% CRB, 24% draw, 22% Ceara — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: CRB 2.12, Ceara 1.17.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: CRB vs Ceara
Has the model earned this number?
CRB at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — CRB vs Ceara
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Vitor CaetanoG
- 32HeredaD
- 22BressanD
- 33LynconD
- 6ReversonD
- 8CrystopherM
- 45De LuccaM
- 10DanielM
- 17ThiaguinhoF
- 28MikaelF
- 97Dadá BelmonteF
- 26EstevãoM
- 7Douglas BaggioF
- 27Fábio AlemãoD
- 18GeovaneM
- 44HenriD
- 2KevinD
- 12MatheusG
- 20Vinicius BarataF
- 95Ygor CatatauF
- 1RichardG
- 18JúlioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 33ÉderD
- 2Rafael RamosD
- 26RichardsonM
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 60EnzoM
- 40RichardM
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 73Saulo MineiroF
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 31BryanD
- 29VinaM
- 16RianF
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 44KaikyM
- 71Gabriel RochaD
- 88CaioM
Form going into CRB vs Ceara
CRB
Serie B
- W3-0away to Nautico Recife8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Goias2 November 2026
- W2-1Londrina24 October 2026
- L0-1Botafogo SP18 October 2026
Ceara
Serie B
- L0-1America Mineiro8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Athletic Club MG2 November 2026
- L0-2Goias27 October 2026
- D2-2Juventude17 October 2026
What these results say
- CRB scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CRB conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
- Ceara did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Ceara conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CRB | 38 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 59 |
| 16 | Ceara | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CRB vs Ceara
- 22 July 2026Ceara 0–1 CRBSerie B
- 21 August 2024CRB 0–2 CearaSerie B
- 24 May 2024Ceara 0–1 CRBCopa Do Brasil
- 6 May 2024Ceara 2–2 CRBSerie B
- 2 May 2024CRB 1–0 CearaCopa Do Brasil
- 7 October 2023CRB 2–0 CearaSerie B
Leading scorers: CRB and Ceara
CRB
GoalsAssists
- Mikael174
- Crystopher78
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Richard74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CRB and Ceara drew 1–1. The goals: Julio Cesar 16' for Ceara, Ygor Catatau 88' for CRB. Sent off: Luiz Otávio (Ceara) 70'. On expected goals it finished 4.18–1.25.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ceara a 12.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 0.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The draw was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 12.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CRB the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for CRB against 1.17 for Ceara. CRB's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.76 for Ceara.
How the model reaches 54% for CRB to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CRB to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, CRB's ratings add 5 points and Ceara's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- CRB's ratings51%+5
- Ceara's ratings54%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.