Criciuma
vs
Novorizontino
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Criciuma 0-1 Novorizontino.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Criciuma, 30% draw, 40% Novorizontino — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Criciuma 1.04, Novorizontino 1.30.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Has the model earned this number?
Novorizontino at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32AirtonG
- 6MarcinhoD
- 37César MartinsD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 97Willean LepoD
- 14RonaldM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 8Guilherme LoboM
- 7Fellipe MateusF
- 33YuriF
- 91R. OteroF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 31Hiago Accinelli da RozaM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 21João CarlosF
- 90Gabriel Capella ChavesF
- 3RodrigoD
- 77Diego GonçalvesF
- 1AlissonG
- 43RuanD
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 3CarlinhosD
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 5SanderD
- 17Matheus BianquiM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 41ReidineyM
- 10RomuloM
- 19Diego GaloM
- 11RobsonF
- 9CarlãoF
- 50JuninhoM
- 31CésarG
- 28MarlonM
- 8C. OrtízF
- 18Léo NaldiM
- 27Diego MathiasF
- 15TavinhoF
- 66MaykonD
Form going into Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Criciuma
Serie B
- L0-1away to Vila Nova7 November 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta30 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sport Recife24 October 2026
- W1-0away to São Bernardo18 October 2026
Novorizontino
Serie B
- W2-1Fortaleza EC7 November 2026
- W2-1Operario-PR1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Atletico Goianiense24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Vila Nova18 October 2026
What these results say
- Criciuma scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Criciuma had two goals or fewer.
- Novorizontino went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Novorizontino scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Novorizontino won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Criciuma | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 62 |
| 1 | Novorizontino | 38 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 67 | 32 | +35 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Criciuma vs Novorizontino
- 21 July 2026Novorizontino 0–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 23 August 2025Criciuma 2–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 21 April 2025Novorizontino 1–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 25 November 2023Novorizontino 2–0 CriciumaSerie B
- 22 July 2023Criciuma 0–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 14 August 2022Novorizontino 3–1 CriciumaSerie B
Leading scorers: Criciuma and Novorizontino
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson165
- Romulo119
- Matheus Bianqui70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Novorizontino won 1–0 at Criciuma. The goal: Juninho 68' for Novorizontino. Sent off: Jean (Criciuma) 60'. On expected goals it finished 0.68–0.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Novorizontino a 81.4% chance to win the league: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 38.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 18.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Criciuma against 1.30 for Novorizontino. Criciuma's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.25 for Novorizontino.
How the model reaches 40% for Novorizontino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Novorizontino to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Criciuma's ratings add 5 points and Novorizontino's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Criciuma's ratings33%+5
- Novorizontino's ratings40%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.