Fortaleza EC
vs
Vila Nova
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza EC 1-0 Vila Nova.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Fortaleza EC, 29% draw, 27% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 1.45, Vila Nova 1.03.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Has the model earned this number?
Fortaleza EC at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1João RicardoG
- 22MaíltonD
- 3Lucas GazalD
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 12Kaio HenriqueD
- 8RonaldM
- 88Lucas SashaM
- 16Pedro HenriqueM
- 75RodriguinhoM
- 77Paulo BayaM
- 9J. MiritelloF
- 13Maurício Júnior Lima RodriguesD
- 17Nathan FogaçaF
- 20JaílsonM
- 29RodrigoM
- 38LuccaM
- 31WellitonF
- 25Vinícius SilvestreG
- 10Lucas CrispimM
- 4LuanD
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 16Igor CariúsD
- 23Jonathan CostaD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 6HigorD
- 5João VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 49DellatorreF
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 9LincolnF
- 8Willian MaranhãoM
- 29DalbersonG
- 31DodôM
- 11Ryan LimaF
- 70Emerson UrsoF
- 21Higor MeritãoM
- 3Tiago PagnussatD
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
Serie B
- L1-2away to Novorizontino7 November 2026
- D0-0Atletico Goianiense2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Ponte Preta24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026
Vila Nova
Serie B
- W1-0Criciuma7 November 2026
- D2-2Juventude31 October 2026
- L2-3away to São Bernardo24 October 2026
- D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza EC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vila Nova scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vila Nova failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vila Nova conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 65 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 66 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
- 22 July 2026Vila Nova 2–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 22 September 2018Fortaleza EC 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 6 June 2018Vila Nova 0–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 8 August 2015Vila Nova 0–0 Fortaleza ECSerie C
- 23 May 2015Fortaleza EC 3–2 Vila NovaSerie C
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton103
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson109
- André Luís92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vila Nova (third, with Fortaleza EC fourth), while our numbers lean to Fortaleza EC. Fortaleza EC rate 0.60 in attack and 1.27 in defence, Vila Nova 0.67 and 1.49 (lower is better in defence), so Fortaleza EC have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vila Nova a 4.5% chance to finish in the top two: 16.8% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 1.03 for Vila Nova. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.49 for Vila Nova.
How the model reaches 44% for Fortaleza EC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fortaleza EC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fortaleza EC's ratings change nothing and Vila Nova's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Fortaleza EC's ratings43%±0
- Vila Nova's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.