Atletico Nacional
vs
Once Caldas
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 1-1 Once Caldas.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Atletico Nacional, 25% draw, 19% Once Caldas — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atletico Nacional 1.83, Once Caldas 0.85.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Nacional at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Luis MarquinezG
- 27Yeicar PerlazaD
- 15Andres ReyesD
- 16William TesilloD
- 20Milton CascoD
- 8Matheus UribeM
- 80Juan ZapataM
- 13Nicolás RodríguezM
- 10Edwin CardonaM
- 30Kevin ParraM
- 32Emanuel BenitezF
- 23James RodríguezM
- 22Elías CabreraM
- 7Marlos MorenoF
- 9Alfredo MorelosF
- 31Xavi RiosM
- 44Edimer ZeaG
- 3Neider ParraD
- 14Elkin RiveroM
- 29Andrés SarmientoF
- 99Felipe ParraG
- 22Juan David CuestaD
- 2Jorge CardonaD
- 30Daniel LondoñoD
- 33Juan PatiñoD
- 5Juan Pablo NietoM
- 7Michael BarriosM
- 23Andres ColoradoM
- 42Jader QuinonesM
- 9Pipe GómezM
- 14Jefry ZapataF
- 20Andrés RoaM
- 17Dayro MorenoF
- 21Helieyker GuzmanF
- 3Andres CorreaD
- 29Edwin TorresF
- 12Jesús CamargoG
- 18Jeider RiquettD
- 16Juan CastañoD
- 15Jaime AlvaradoM
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
Primera A
- W4-3Deportivo Pereira7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga3 November 2026
- W2-0Santa Fe30 October 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin25 October 2026
Once Caldas
Primera A
- W1-0Águilas Doradas7 November 2026
- W1-0Alianza Valledupar28 October 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Pereira25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Millonarios21 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Nacional went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Atletico Nacional scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Nacional won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Once Caldas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Once Caldas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 18 | +20 | 40 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
- 11 November 2026Once Caldas 1–1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
- 1 May 2026Once Caldas 1–0 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 22 October 2025Atletico Nacional 2–0 Once CaldasCopa Colombia
- 10 October 2025Once Caldas 0–1 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
- 12 July 2025Once Caldas 1–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 19 June 2025Once Caldas 1–2 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos166
- A. Sarmiento117
- E. Cardona104
Once Caldas
GoalsAssists
- D. Moreno171
- J. Zapata133
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Nacional and Once Caldas drew 1–1. The goals: Kevin Parra 14' for Atletico Nacional, Pipe Gómez 32' for Once Caldas. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.71.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Once Caldas a 53.6% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 73.9% after a draw, 34.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 73.9%, 20.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Atletico Nacional against 0.85 for Once Caldas. Atletico Nacional's attack/defence rating is 1/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.26 for Once Caldas.
How the model reaches 56% for Atletico Nacional to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Atletico Nacional to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Atletico Nacional's ratings add 6 points and Once Caldas's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Atletico Nacional's ratings51%+6
- Once Caldas's ratings56%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.