Deportivo Cali
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Cali 2-2 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Deportivo Cali, 30% draw, 22% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.37, Deportes Tolima 0.73.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo Cali at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 38Alejandro RodríguezG
- 15Léyser ChaverraD
- 12José CalderaD
- 4Fernando ÁlvarezD
- 28Edwin VelascoD
- 8Daniel GiraldoM
- 5Gustavo CuéllarM
- 19Johan MartínezM
- 10Emanuel ReynosoM
- 14Alexis ManyomaM
- 9Juan DinennoF
- 23Steven RodríguezF
- 27Fabián ViáfaraD
- 18Avilés HurtadoF
- 70Carlos BaccaF
- 29Kevin SuárezM
- 32Santiago MondragónG
- 16Keimer SandovalD
- 26Juan José TelloD
- 13Ronaldo PájaroD
- 13Miguel OrtegaG
- 3Jan ÁnguloD
- 2Anderson AnguloD
- 5Juan MeraD
- 20Junior HernándezD
- 14Homer MartinezM
- 80Brayan RoviraM
- 18Kelvin FlorezM
- 8Ever ValenciaM
- 7Jorge HurtadoM
- 24Adrián ParraF
- 10Luis SánchezM
- 9Luis SandovalF
- 4Daniel PedrozoD
- 6Cristian TrujilloM
- 28Edwar LópezF
- 23Gali BalantaG
- 16Victor ReyesM
- 35Breiner CotesF
- 11Jader ValenciaF
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
Primera A
- D0-0away to America de Cali8 November 2026
- W2-0Chico1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Fortaleza FC25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026
Deportes Tolima
Primera A
- W2-1Millonarios8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Pereira3 November 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Águilas Doradas18 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Cali kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportes Tolima conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Deportes Tolima scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Deportes Tolima had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 35 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Deportes Tolima
- 3 May 2026Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 25 October 2025Deportes Tolima 2–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 3 May 2025Deportivo Cali 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 8 September 2024Deportes Tolima 1–1 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 27 February 2024Deportivo Cali 1–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 30 November 2023Deportivo Cali 0–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez113
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra95
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo Cali and Deportes Tolima drew 2–2. The goals: Juan Dinenno (penalty) 8' for Deportivo Cali, Luis Sandoval 47' for Deportes Tolima, Luis Sandoval 62' for Deportes Tolima, Steven Rodríguez 84' for Deportivo Cali. Sent off: Juan Mera (Deportes Tolima) 57'. On expected goals it finished 2.17–0.57.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportes Tolima a 24.5% chance to finish in the top eight: 94.1% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.3%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.73 for Deportes Tolima. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.33 for Deportes Tolima.
How the model reaches 48% for Deportivo Cali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Deportivo Cali to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Deportivo Cali's ratings add 2 points and Deportes Tolima's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Deportivo Cali's ratings44%+2
- Deportes Tolima's ratings48%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.