Bucaramanga
vs
Fortaleza FC
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-0 Fortaleza FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Bucaramanga, 24% draw, 14% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 1.61, 4.17 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.95, Fortaleza FC 0.69.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Has the model earned this number?
Bucaramanga at 62%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Diego NovoaG
- 19Aldair GutiérrezD
- 23Carlos RomañaD
- 24José OrtizD
- 8Freddy HinestrozaD
- 21Felix CharrupíM
- 20Aldair ZárateM
- 32Nilzo RamírezM
- 11Fredy SalazarF
- 9Brandon CaicedoF
- 28Leonardo FloresF
- 7Kevin LondoñoM
- 30Víctor CantilloM
- 14Juan MosqueraD
- 4José GarcíaD
- 80Omar AlbornozD
- 61Andrés GómezG
- 3Martín ReaD
- 22Fabry CastroM
- 5Adrián MurilloF
- 1Williams BarlasinaG
- 16Joan CajaresD
- 6Yesid DíazD
- 2Andres CopeteD
- 15Santiago CueroD
- 14Leonardo PicoM
- 28Santiago VivasM
- 27Julio SinisterraM
- 8Sebastián NavarroM
- 32Mariano VázquezM
- 19Franco PulicastroF
- 4Edwin CabezasD
- 7Italo Montaño CortesF
- 13Brandon MejíaM
- 12Cristian SantanderG
- 36Daniel GomezM
- 21CandeloM
- 33Armando LarransM
- 38Nicolás CorredorF
- 31Juan AlbornozM
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
Primera A
- W4-0away to Jaguares8 November 2026
- D1-1Atletico Nacional3 November 2026
- W2-1Deportivo Pasto31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Santa Fe27 October 2026
Fortaleza FC
Primera A
- L0-3Independiente Medellin7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Águilas Doradas2 November 2026
- L1-2away to America de Cali29 October 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cali25 October 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bucaramanga had three goals or more.
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 35 |
| 20 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza FC
- 3 May 2026Fortaleza FC 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 30 November 2025Fortaleza FC 0–2 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 26 November 2025Bucaramanga 1–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 27 September 2025Fortaleza FC 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 14 April 2025Bucaramanga 4–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 10 November 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons155
- E. Batalla126
Fortaleza FC
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bucaramanga beat Fortaleza FC 1–0. The goal: Brandon Caicedo 90+5' for Bucaramanga. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.20.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.69 for Fortaleza FC. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.68 for Fortaleza FC.
How the model reaches 62% for Bucaramanga to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Bucaramanga to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Bucaramanga's ratings add 9 points and Fortaleza FC's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Bucaramanga's ratings53%+9
- Fortaleza FC's ratings62%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.