Cucuta
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Cucuta 2-0 Jaguares.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Cucuta, 25% draw, 20% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cucuta 1.91, Jaguares 0.94.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Cucuta vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
Cucuta at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cucuta vs Jaguares
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Federico AbadíaG
- 3Diego CalcaterraD
- 2Hernán LópesD
- 17Leison OchoaD
- 27Mauricio DuarteD
- 10Leider BerdugoM
- 6Jairo CastellanosM
- 77Carlos RenteríaM
- 20Dayan PérezF
- 9Jaime PeraltaF
- 11Gustavo TorresF
- 21Marlon CarabaliF
- 7Jader ManyomaM
- 5Victor MejiaM
- 32Jhonatan AgudeloF
- 8Juan CeballosM
- 1Juan David RamírezG
- 4Jhon QuiñónesF
- 22Tobías SánchezD
- 18Cristian CórdobaF
- 1Diego MartínezG
- 4Juan FrancoD
- 5Royscer ColpaD
- 29Carlos HenaoD
- 23Juan PérezD
- 32Jose YanezM
- 21Rafael BustamanteM
- 20Faber Andrés GilM
- 16Johan BeltránM
- 7Wilfrido De la RosaM
- 9Johar MejíaF
- 6Jonathan LoveraM
- 8Duvan RodríguezF
- 27Faber GraciaM
- 17Darwin LopezF
- 35Carlos OchoaD
- 26Elio LópezG
- 28Diego ZuluagaM
Form going into Cucuta vs Jaguares
Cucuta
Primera A
- L0-2away to Junior10 November 2026
- W1-0Santa Fe4 November 2026
- L0-2Águilas Doradas27 October 2026
- L1-3away to America de Cali24 October 2026
Jaguares
Primera A
- L0-4Bucaramanga8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Pasto3 November 2026
- L0-1away to Deportivo Pereira30 October 2026
- W1-0Llaneros26 October 2026
What these results say
- Cucuta failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cucuta conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Cucuta had two goals or fewer.
- Jaguares failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cucuta | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 27 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Jaguares
- 2 May 2026Jaguares 2–0 CucutaPrimera A
- 15 November 2025Jaguares 1–2 CucutaPrimera B
- 11 November 2025Cucuta 2–2 JaguaresPrimera B
- 21 September 2025Cucuta 1–2 JaguaresPrimera B
- 1 May 2025Jaguares 1–2 CucutaPrimera B
- 10 March 2020Jaguares 0–3 CucutaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Cucuta and Jaguares
Cucuta
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Jaguares
GoalsAssists
- A. Rentería123
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cucuta beat Jaguares 2–0. The goals: Dayan Pérez 36' for Cucuta, Gustavo Torres 72' for Cucuta. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.43.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cucuta the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Cucuta against 0.94 for Jaguares. Cucuta's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.12 for Jaguares.
How the model reaches 55% for Cucuta to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Cucuta to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cucuta's ratings add 4 points and Jaguares's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Cucuta's ratings50%+4
- Jaguares's ratings55%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.