Internacional de Bogota
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional de Bogota 0-2 Santa Fe.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Internacional de Bogota, 28% draw, 43% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Internacional de Bogota 1.10, Santa Fe 1.47.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
Santa Fe at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Wuilker FaríñezG
- 6Miguel AmayaD
- 2Carlos VivasD
- 26Agustín IrazoqueD
- 25Ronaldo JulioM
- 24Ruben ManjarresM
- 8Dewar VictoriaM
- 13Miguel PerniaM
- 10Facundo BonéF
- 9Diego DuarteF
- 11Cristián DájomeF
- 7Fabricio SanguinettiF
- 5Larry VásquezM
- 23Johan CaballeroF
- 17Fabian ChaverraM
- 22Sebastián GiradoF
- 12Juan CarrascoG
- 32Jhon PalomequeM
- 14Mateo SantamariaM
- 27Emilio GutiérrezF
- 1Andrés MosqueraG
- 13Helibelton PalaciosD
- 18Emanuel OliveraD
- 3Victor MorenoD
- 4Mateo PuertaD
- 16Daniel TorresM
- 7Jhojan TorresM
- 77Jader ObrianM
- 9Franco FagúndezM
- 25Emerson RodríguezM
- 11Hugo RodallegaF
- 6Kilian ToscanoF
- 15Ivan ScarpetaD
- 8Omar FernándezF
- 14Luis Angel PalaciosF
- 10Alexis ZapataM
- 12Weimar AsprillaG
- 17Maximiliano LoveraF
- 40Martin PalaciosF
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
Form going into Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
Primera A
- L1-2away to Chico6 November 2026
- W3-1Independiente Medellin29 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Valledupar25 October 2026
- W2-1Fortaleza FC20 October 2026
Santa Fe
Primera A
- W5-0Deportivo Pasto8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Cucuta4 November 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Nacional30 October 2026
- W2-1Bucaramanga27 October 2026
What these results say
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Internacional de Bogota had three goals or more.
- Santa Fe conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 18 | +12 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional de Bogota vs Santa Fe
- 3 May 2026Santa Fe 3–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 28 September 2025Santa Fe 3–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 11 April 2025Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 27 July 2024Santa Fe 0–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 26 May 2024Santa Fe 2–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 12 May 2024Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Internacional de Bogota and Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti107
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega173
- F. Fagúndez105
- N. Bustos105
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santa Fe won 2–0 at Internacional de Bogota. The goals: E. Rodriguez 30' for Santa Fe, E. Olivera 63' for Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 0.87–0.62.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Internacional de Bogota against 1.47 for Santa Fe. Internacional de Bogota's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.17 for Santa Fe.
How the model reaches 43% for Santa Fe to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Santa Fe to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Internacional de Bogota's ratings add 8 points and Santa Fe's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage27%−8
- Internacional de Bogota's ratings35%+8
- Santa Fe's ratings43%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.