Juventude
vs
Botafogo SP
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Juventude 2-0 Botafogo SP.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Juventude, 25% draw, 19% Botafogo SP — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Juventude 1.84, Botafogo SP 0.83.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Has the model earned this number?
Juventude at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 93JandreiG
- 34Rodrigo SamD
- 4MessiasD
- 47Marcos PauloD
- 13AderlanM
- 75RaíM
- 29Gabriel PiresM
- 16Diogo BarbosaM
- 11Fábio LimaF
- 25Alisson SafiraF
- 10Marcos PauloF
- 44MandacaM
- 30PatryckD
- 72Lucas AlvesF
- 18L. AmarillaF
- 97Gabriel PinheiroD
- 3TitiD
- 5Luan GonçalvesD
- 70Juan ChristianF
- 12Pedro RochaG
- 12JordanG
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 4VilarD
- 13WallaceD
- 27DarlanD
- 22Gabriel InocêncioD
- 28Marco AntônioM
- 5L. MacielM
- 10Rafael GavaM
- 30Zé HugoM
- 29Thiago HenriqueF
- 21Jadson Alves de LimaF
- 34BadaróD
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 23Wesley Pinheiro SantosF
- 19Erik RebelloM
- 20Yuri Felipe Santos da ConceiçãoM
- 25AdrianoG
- 18Henrique Lôvo TelesD
Form going into Juventude vs Botafogo SP
Juventude
Serie B
- W2-1away to Cuiaba7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Vila Nova31 October 2026
- W4-0Nautico Recife26 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ceara17 October 2026
Botafogo SP
Serie B
- W4-0Londrina5 November 2026
- D1-1Sport Recife31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Avai24 October 2026
- W1-0away to CRB18 October 2026
What these results say
- Juventude went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Juventude scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Juventude had three goals or more.
- Botafogo SP went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Botafogo SP scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Botafogo SP won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Juventude | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 71 |
| 12 | Botafogo SP | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 41 | +4 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventude vs Botafogo SP
- 24 July 2026Botafogo SP 4–2 JuventudeSerie B
- 29 July 2023Botafogo SP 0–2 JuventudeSerie B
- 15 April 2023Juventude 1–2 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 2 December 2020Botafogo SP 1–1 JuventudeSerie B
- 29 August 2020Juventude 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 28 August 2016Juventude 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie C
Leading scorers: Juventude and Botafogo SP
Juventude
GoalsAssists
- Raí105
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Hygor110
- Everton Morelli104
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventude beat Botafogo SP 2–0. The goals: Fabio lima 57' for Juventude, Raí da Silva Pessanha 65' for Juventude. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.49.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Juventude a 18.6% chance to win the league: 30.5% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.5%, 11.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventude the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Juventude against 0.83 for Botafogo SP. Juventude's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.55 for Botafogo SP.
How the model reaches 56% for Juventude to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juventude to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Juventude's ratings add 6 points and Botafogo SP's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Juventude's ratings49%+6
- Botafogo SP's ratings56%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.