Sport Recife
vs
Goias
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Sport Recife 3-0 Goias.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Sport Recife, 26% draw, 23% Goias — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.83, Goias 1.08.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Sport Recife vs Goias
Has the model earned this number?
Sport Recife at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sport Recife vs Goias
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 68AugustoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 28HabraãoD
- 96EdsonD
- 6BielM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 20D. HernándezM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 9PerottiF
- 63Patrick Jorge De Oliveira FerrazD
- 88Fernando SobralM
- 25ClaysonM
- 23Zé GabrielM
- 80K. AndradeF
- 8Juan AlanoF
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 76RaíD
- 23TadeuG
- 54Djalma SilvaD
- 3Luiz FelipeD
- 14Lucas RibeiroD
- 6NicolasD
- 18CaduM
- 5Filipe MachadoM
- 97LourençoM
- 28GegêM
- 40KaduF
- 11Felipe ClementeF
- 2Rodrigo SoaresD
- 10Lucas LimaM
- 55Guilherme BaldóriaM
- 25Luis FellipeD
- 66Danilo CunhaD
- 17Pedro JunqueiraF
- 1Thiago RodriguesG
- 27Wellington RatoM
- 8JuninhoM
Form going into Sport Recife vs Goias
Sport Recife
Serie B
- L2-3away to Operario-PR6 November 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo SP31 October 2026
- W2-1Criciuma24 October 2026
- L0-2Fortaleza EC16 October 2026
Goias
Serie B
- W1-0Ponte Preta8 November 2026
- W2-1CRB2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Ceara27 October 2026
- D0-0Nautico Recife19 October 2026
What these results say
- Sport Recife conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Goias went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Goias won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Goias scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sport Recife | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 58 |
| 8 | Goias | 38 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sport Recife vs Goias
- 22 July 2026Goias 1–1 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 19 September 2024Sport Recife 1–1 GoiasSerie B
- 1 June 2024Goias 3–0 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 26 December 2020Goias 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
- 6 September 2020Sport Recife 2–1 GoiasSerie A
- 10 September 2015Goias 1–0 Sport RecifeSerie A
Leading scorers: Sport Recife and Goias
Sport Recife
GoalsAssists
- Perotti151
- Chrystian Barletta144
Goias
GoalsAssists
- Kadu111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Goias (eighth, with Sport Recife ninth), while our numbers lean to Sport Recife. Sport Recife rate 0.72 in attack and 1.69 in defence, Goias 0.53 and 1.56 (lower is better in defence), so Sport Recife have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sport Recife the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sport Recife against 1.08 for Goias. Sport Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.56 for Goias.
How the model reaches 51% for Sport Recife to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sport Recife to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Sport Recife's ratings add 5 points and Goias's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Sport Recife's ratings49%+5
- Goias's ratings51%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.