Millonarios
vs
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Millonarios 2-0 Alianza Valledupar.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Millonarios, 23% draw, 14% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.59, 4.35 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Millonarios 2.01, Alianza Valledupar 0.68.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Other predictions for 15 Nov
Model insights: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Has the model earned this number?
Millonarios at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Javier BurraiG
- 3Samuel MartínD
- 4Stiven BarreiroD
- 17Jorge AriasD
- 13Francisco ChaverraD
- 7Juan CuadradoM
- 19Mateo GarcíaM
- 18Rodrigo UreñaM
- 11Andrey EstupiñánM
- 14David Macalister SilvaF
- 27Rodrigo ContrerasF
- 24Julian AnguloF
- 25Darwin QuinteroM
- 34Jhonier GuerreroD
- 20Danovis BangueroD
- 30Sebastián del CastilloM
- 12James AguirreG
- 26Andrés LlinásD
- 55LeonaiM
- 35Sebastián MosqueraF
- 13Antonio SimancasG
- 23Israel AlbaD
- 5Pedro FrancoD
- 2Sebastián QuiñonesD
- 32Juan ViverosD
- 88Leyner PalaciosD
- 55Wiston FernándezM
- 7Jair CastilloM
- 11Brayan ViafaraM
- 17Felipe PardoF
- 8Jesús MuñozF
- 6Ever MezaM
- 25Josy PérezM
- 18Cristian Andres Vergara RivasF
- 21Samuel NietoF
- 26Howen RadaF
- 40Eduar BeltránG
- 16Kevin CórdobaF
Form going into Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
Primera A
- L1-2away to Deportes Tolima8 November 2026
- D0-0America de Cali5 November 2026
- D1-1Once Caldas21 October 2026
- W4-1Jaguares17 October 2026
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A
- L1-2Llaneros9 November 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin1 November 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas28 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026
What these results say
- Millonarios failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Millonarios scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Millonarios conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alianza Valledupar conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 16 | +11 | 30 |
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Millonarios vs Alianza Valledupar
- 3 May 2026Alianza Valledupar 2–2 MillonariosPrimera A
- 13 September 2025Alianza Valledupar 3–0 MillonariosPrimera A
- 30 March 2025Millonarios 2–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 28 July 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–1 MillonariosPrimera A
- 31 January 2024Millonarios 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 6 October 2023Alianza Valledupar 1–2 MillonariosCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Millonarios and Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán194
- L. Castro126
- R. Contreras101
Alianza Valledupar
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Millonarios beat Alianza Valledupar 2–0. The goals: Mateo García 40' for Millonarios, Darwin Quintero 78' for Millonarios. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Millonarios a 96.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 100.0% after a win, 96.3% after a draw, 72.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millonarios the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Millonarios against 0.68 for Alianza Valledupar. Millonarios's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.78 for Alianza Valledupar.
How the model reaches 63% for Millonarios to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Millonarios to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Millonarios's ratings add 9 points and Alianza Valledupar's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Millonarios's ratings53%+9
- Alianza Valledupar's ratings63%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.