Montenegro
vs
Latvia
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Montenegro 2-1 Latvia.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Montenegro, 25% draw, 17% Latvia — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Montenegro 1.79, Latvia 0.72.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Montenegro vs Latvia
Has the model earned this number?
Montenegro at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Montenegro vs Latvia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. PopovićG
- 21A. BulatovićD
- 15S. SavićD
- 5I. VujačićD
- 16O. GaševićD
- 8M. JankovićM
- 14M. BrnovićM
- 17Vasilije AdžićM
- 18S. HakšabanovićM
- 20M. OsmajićF
- 9N. KrstovićF
- 22D. VukovićF
- 11M. VukotićM
- 7M. VešovićD
- 6S. RubežićD
- 3R. RadunovićD
- 12D. PetkovićG
- 4A. ĐurićD
- 10S. JovetićF
- 23A. LatkovićM
- 23R. MatrevicsG
- 13R. JurkovskisD
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 5A. ČernomordijsD
- 4O. VientiessD
- 3D. CirkinD
- 7E. DašķevičsM
- 17L. VapneM
- 15D. ZelenkovsM
- 14A. CigaņiksM
- 20R. UldriķisF
- 18A. AleksanjanM
- 8E. EmsisM
- 16K. GrabovskisM
- 9V. GutkovskisF
- 10J. IkaunieksM
- 12F. OrolsG
- 6D. PatijčuksM
- 1N. PuriņšG
- 11R. SavaļnieksD
Form going into Montenegro vs Latvia
Montenegro
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Armenia5 October 2026
- W2-1away to Latvia2 October 2026
- W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
- W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026
Latvia
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Cyprus5 October 2026
- L1-2Montenegro2 October 2026
- D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
- L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026
What these results say
- Montenegro went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Montenegro won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Montenegro scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Latvia did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Latvia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montenegro | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 4 | Latvia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Montenegro vs Latvia
- 2 October 2026Latvia 1–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
- 7 September 2021Montenegro 0–0 LatviaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 24 March 2021Latvia 1–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 7 October 2020Montenegro 1–1 LatviaFriendlies
The result against the call
Montenegro beat Latvia 2–1. The goals: Nikola Krstović 70' for Montenegro, Deniss Meļņiks 72' for Latvia, Aleksa Maraš 90+1' for Montenegro. Sent off: Stefan Savić (Montenegro) 57'. On expected goals it finished 2.99–1.30.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Montenegro the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Montenegro against 0.72 for Latvia. Montenegro's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.41 for Latvia.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 58% for Montenegro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Montenegro to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Montenegro's ratings add 11 points and Latvia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level37%−1
- Montenegro's ratings48%+11
- Latvia's ratings58%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.