Italy
vs
France
UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Italy 3-1 France.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Italy, 28% draw, 37% France — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Italy 1.32, France 1.35.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
More Nations League predictions
Model insights: Italy vs France
Has the model earned this number?
France at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Italy vs France
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 2M. KayodeD
- 3G. ScalviniD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 8S. TonaliM
- 18N. BarellaM
- 7S. EspositoF
- 9F. EspositoF
- 19N. CambiaghiF
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 11F. DimarcoD
- 14M. PalestraD
- 4S. RicciM
- 23L. KoleoshoF
- 17A. RomanoM
- 20G. ScamaccaF
- 22D. GhilardiD
- 10N. FagioliM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 2M. GustoD
- 22J. JacquetD
- 4D. UpamecanoD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 11M. OliseM
- 7R. CherkiM
- 20D. DouéM
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 13A. DioufM
- 18W. Zaïre-EmeryM
- 15I. KonatéD
- 9E. KroupiF
- 5S. KumbediD
- 8Senny MayuluM
- 1G. RestesG
- 23R. RisserG
- 17L. YoroD
Form going into Italy vs France
Italy
UEFA Nations League
- W3-1Türkiye5 October 2026
- D1-1away to France2 October 2026
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
France
UEFA Nations League
- W4-1Belgium5 October 2026
- D1-1Italy2 October 2026
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
What these results say
- Italy conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Italy scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Italy.
- France went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- France scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- France won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | France | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: France vs Italy
France and Italy have met 6 times in the records we hold, Italy has won 3 of them to France's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Italy won the last one 3–1 on 12 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| Italy | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Nov 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueItaly 3–1 France - 2 Oct 2026
UEFA Nations LeagueFrance 1–1 Italy - 17 Nov 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueItaly 1–3 France - 6 Sep 2024
UEFA Nations LeagueFrance 1–3 Italy - 1 Jun 2018
FriendliesFrance 3–1 Italy - 17 Jun 2008
Euro ChampionshipFrance 0–2 Italy
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, France's attack rates 5% above Italy's, and France concede 5% fewer than Italy. That gives France the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Italy and France
Italy
GoalsAssists
- F. Esposito41
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Italy (first, with France second), while our numbers lean to France. France rate 1.74 in attack and 0.59 in defence, Italy 1.65 and 0.62 (lower is better in defence), so France have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives France the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Italy against 1.35 for France. Italy's attack/defence rating is 1.65/0.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.74/0.59 for France.
How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.
How the model reaches 37% for France to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for France to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Italy's ratings add 1 point and France's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Italy's ratings35%+1
- France's ratings37%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.