League A - 5 · 13 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Serbia vs Germany UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade
Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Serbia 1-3 Germany.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Serbia, 25% draw, 54% Germany — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

Expected goals: Serbia 0.98, Germany 1.91.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Serbia vs Germany

54%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%0-2 10%0-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

Germany at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Srdjan Babic (OG)
14'
⚽Florian Wirtz
41'
Brajan Gruda
🔁Lazar Samardzicout: Andrija Živković
45'
🔁Stefan Džodićout: Vanja Dragojević
45'
50'
⚽Brajan Grudaassist: Joshua Kimmich
⚽Srdjan Babic
56'
Srdjan Babic
62'
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Vladimir Lucic
64'
🔁Mihajlo Cvetkovicout: Aleksandar Mitrović
71'
73'
🔁Philipp Treuout: Ridle Baku
74'
🔁Aleksandar Pavlovićout: Tom Bischof
74'
🔁Kai Havertzout: Niclas Füllkrug
•Vanja Dragojević
75'
Vanja Dragojević
76'
81'
🔁Florian Wirtzout: Felix Nmecha
86'
🔁Brajan Grudaout: Said El Mala
🔁Sergej Milinković-Savićout: Vasilije Kostov
86'
Petar Sukacev
87'
Andrija Živković
89'
Andrija Živković
89'

Match stats — Serbia vs Germany

21%Possession79%
5Shots22
3On target6
0Corners6
1.32xG2.73

Goals against chances

Serbia1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Germany3 from 2.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Serbia 5-3-2
  • 23V. Milinković-SavićG
  • 2K. NedeljkovićD
  • 4N. MilenkovićD
  • 15S. BabićD
  • 6S. GudeljD
  • 21P. SukacevD
  • 11L. SamardžićM
  • 17S. DžodićM
  • 20S. Milinković-SavićM
  • 7M. CvetkovićF
  • 10D. TadićF
Substitutes
  • 14A. ŽivkovićF
  • 13N. SimićD
  • 12D. RosićG
  • 1Đ. PetrovićG
  • 9A. MitrovićF
  • 19V. LučićM
  • 18M. KrpićD
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 8L. JovićF
Coach: V. Paunovic
Germany 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ter StegenG
  • 13P. TreuD
  • 2M. ThiawD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 18M. MittelstädtD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 5A. PavlovićM
  • 10B. GrudaM
  • 17F. WirtzM
  • 19D. ScherhantM
  • 7K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 14T. BischofM
  • 12J. UrbigG
  • 23Y. EbnoutalibF
  • 20S. El MalaM
  • 9N. FüllkrugF
  • 16Finn JeltschD
  • 22L. KarlM
  • 8F. NmechaM
Coach: J. Klopp

Form going into Serbia vs Germany

Serbia

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Netherlands4 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Germany1 October 2026
  • L1-2Netherlands27 September 2026
  • L1-2Greece24 September 2026

Germany

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0away to Greece4 October 2026
  • W2-0Serbia1 October 2026
  • L0-1Greece27 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Netherlands24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Serbia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Serbia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Serbia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Germany had two goals or fewer.
  • Germany failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Serbia5005411-70
3Germany522163+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Serbia vs Germany

  • 1 October 2026Germany 2–0 SerbiaUEFA Nations League
  • 20 March 2019Germany 1–1 SerbiaFriendlies
  • 18 June 2010Germany 0–1 SerbiaWorld Cup

The result against the call

Germany won 3–1 at Serbia. The goals: Srdjan Babic (own goal) 3' for Germany, Florian Wirtz 14' for Germany, Brajan Gruda 50' for Germany, Srdjan Babic 56' for Serbia. Sent off: Vanja Dragojević (Serbia) 76', Andrija Živković (Serbia) 89'. On expected goals it finished 1.32–2.73.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Serbia Germany
1.02 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.44
1.06 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.71
0.98 Model expected goals (this match) 1.91

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Germany the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Serbia against 1.91 for Germany. Serbia's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.44/0.71 for Germany.

How national teams are rated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted, and not yet calibrated: too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so this prediction rests on less evidence than our club predictions. How the model works.

How the model reaches 54% for Germany to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Germany to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Serbia's ratings add 10 points and Germany's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 54%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage34%−2
  3. Serbia's ratings44%+10
  4. Germany's ratings54%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.